[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 071726
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1226 PM EST Sat Mar 7 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: A cold front will continue moving E
toward the Windward Passage this weekend, moving E of the approach
by this evening. Strong to near gale force NE winds will follow
the front, in the Lee of Cuba, through the Windward Passage, in
the Lee of Hispaniola, and over the waters north of Colombia.
These winds are forecast to increase to minimal gale-force on Sun
night, diminishing back to strong to near gale-force by early Mon.
Seas are forecast to build to 8-12 ft with these winds. Please
refer to the Atlantic High Seas Forecast under the AWIPS header
MIAHSFAT2 and under the WMO header FZNT02 KNHC or at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 06N11W
to 00N19W to 00N26W. The ITCZ continues from 00N26W to the coast
of Brazil near 03S41W. Scattered moderate convection is noted
south of 04N and west of 20W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure building in the wake of the front will continue to
support fresh to strong N to NE winds across the basin today,
with strongest speeds prevailing over the the eastern half of the
Gulf waters. Winds will weaken to gentle to moderate range by
early next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section for more details about
the Gale Warning in effect for the basin.

A cold front is analyzed from eastern Cuba near 21N77W to 18N85W ,
then becomes stationary to 14N87W. Fresh northerly winds are
following the front through the Yucatan Channel, along with
building seas ranging between 7-9 ft. Fresh to strong trades were
noted over the central Caribbean S of 18N, as well as in the
eastern Caribbean, with light to moderate trades elsewhere. Seas
are mainly 6-9 ft in the central Caribbean, 4-7 ft in the eastern
Caribbean, and 3-5 ft elsewhere.

The cold front will continue moving SE this weekend before
stalling from the Virgin Islands into the central Caribbean on Mon.
Strong winds and large seas will develop behind the front across
the Caribbean, with brief gales over the south central Caribbean, in
the lee of Cuba, and off the south coast of Hispaniola on Sun
night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front was analyzed from 31N62W to 25N76W. Latest
scatterometer data depicts fresh northerly winds behind the front,
while moderate to fresh southwesterly winds prevail ahead of it.
To the east, a surface ridge prevails across the remainder of the
area, anchored by a 1023 mb high centered near 31N44W. A pair of
surface troughs were analyzed. The first extend from 27N45W to
19N46W, while the second one is from 28N33W to 23N32W. Scattered
showers are noted along these boundaries.

The front will move SE this weekend before stalling and weakening
over the SE waters Sun night through Mon. Strong winds and large
seas developing behind the front will prevail through Tue before
conditions start to improve the middle of next week.

$$

ERA
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