[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 071205
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
705 AM EST Sat Mar 7 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1150 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...CARIBBEAN SEA GALE WARNING...

The 42-hour forecast, starting at 07/0600 UTC, from 17N to 19N
between 75W and 77W, including in the Windward Passage, consists
of NE gale- force winds. The sea heights will range from 8 feet to
12 feet. Expect, NE gale-force winds and sea heights ranging from
8 feet to 9 feet, from 17N to 18N between 70W and 72W, in the
southern coastal waters of the Dominican Republic.

A second area of gale-force winds is forecast to develop in the
waters that are off the coast of Colombia, in 42 hours, from 11N
to 12N between 74W and 76W. The sea heights are forecast to range
from 8 feet to 10 feet.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST: MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC, the latest OFFSHORE FORECAST: MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC, or go
to the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml,
from the NWS National Hurricane Center, for more details.

...WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN GALE WARNING...

.ATLC COLD FRONT FROM 31N68W TO 22.5N79W. WITHIN 31N81.5W TO
31N81W TO 28N79W TO 28N80.5W NW WINDS 20 TO 30 KT WITH FREQUENT
GUSTS TO 35 KT, ENDING SOON.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST:
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, the latest OFFSHORE FORECAST:
MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC, or go to the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, from the NWS
National Hurricane Center, for more details.

Eastern Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning: Please refer to the
METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast, that is listed on the website:
the website: www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-
marine/bulletin/grandlarge/metarea2. Gale-force winds are forecast
for the areas: AGADIR, ending soon. The Meteo-France forecast,
listed under the WMO header WONT50 LFPW, or at
http://www.gmdss.org/bulletins/METAREA2.HIGH_SEAS_WARNING.1920.
061920095563.txt, has these conditions prevailing through early
Saturday. A third website to use as a reference is:
weather.gmdss.org/ll.html, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of
Sierra Leone near 08N13W, to 05N18W, and 02N23W. The ITCZ
continues from 02N23W, to 01N30W, to the Equator along 35W.
Precipitation: Scattered moderate to strong is from 02N southward
between 26W and 28W. Scattered moderate to strong is from the
Equator southward to the coast of Brazil between 44W and 47W.
Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 01N to 05N
from 01W eastward. Isolated moderate is elsewhere from 08N
southward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

The cold front has exited from the Gulf of Mexico completely.
Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds and possible
rainshowers are from 22N southward. Isolated moderate elsewhere
from 20N northward from 94W westward.

A surface ridge passes through the easternmost parts of Texas,
into the coastal waters of Texas and Mexico, continuing to the
Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico.

High pressure will prevail across the Gulf of Mexico through the
forecast period. Fresh to strong winds in the eastern waters will
diminish early next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The 42-hour forecast, starting at 07/0600 UTC, from 17N to 19N
between 75W and 77W, including in the Windward Passage, consists
of NE gale- force winds. The sea heights will range from 8 feet to
12 feet. Expect, NE gale-force winds and sea heights ranging from
8 feet to 9 feet, from 17N to 18N between 70W and 72W, in the
southern coastal waters of the Dominican Republic. Please read
the SPECIAL FEATURES section.

A second area of gale-force winds is forecast to develop in the
waters that are off the coast of Colombia, in 42 hours, from 11N
to 12N between 74W and 76W. The sea heights are forecast to range
from 8 feet to 10 feet. Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES
section.

A cold front is passing just to south of Andros Island in the
NW Bahamas, through Cuba along 22N80W, into the NW corner of the
Caribbean Sea near 19N85W, to the northern border of Guatemala and
Honduras. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds
and isolated moderate rainshowers are to the NW of the line that
runs from 80W in Cuba, to the east central coast of Honduras.

Rainshowers are possible, elsewhere, in clusters of broken low
level clouds, in tradewind flow, across the area.

24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that
ended at 07/0000 UTC, according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE
AND PRECIPITATION TABLES, MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC, are: 0.14 in
Guadeloupe.

The current cold front will move SE during the weekend, before
stalling from the Virgin Islands into the central Caribbean Sea
on Monday. Strong winds and large seas will develop behind the
front across the Caribbean Sea, with brief gale-force winds in the
lee of Cuba, and off the southern coast of Hispaniola on Sunday
night. Strong winds will prevail in the south central Caribbean
Sea through the forecast period. The wind speeds will pulse to
minimal gale-force, off the coast of Colombia, on Sunday night and
on Monday night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front is about 35 nm to the east of Bermuda, passing
through 28N70W, just to south of Andros Island in the NW Bahamas,
through Cuba along 22N80W, into the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea
near 19N85W, to the northern border of Guatemala and Honduras.
Precipitation: isolated to widely scattered moderate and isolated
strong are within 200 nm to the east of the cold front from 28N
northward. Other rainshowers are possible within 120 nm to the
east of the cold front from Cuba to 28N. 24-hour rainfall totals
that are listed for the period that ended at 07/0000 UTC,
according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION
TABLES, MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC, are: 0.20 in Bermuda.

One surface trough is along 44W/45W, from 20N to 28N. Precipitation:
rainshowers are possible within 75 nm on either side of the
trough.

A second surface trough curves along 31N33W 27N34W 21N31W.
Precipitation: rainshowers are possible within 150 nm to the
east of the trough.

The current cold front will move SE during the weekend, before
stalling and weakening in the SE waters from Sunday night through
Monday. Strong winds and large seas, developing behind the front,
will prevail through Tuesday, before the conditions start to
improve during the middle of the next week.

$$
MT
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