[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 070546
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1246 AM EST Sat Mar 7 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Caribbean Sea Gale Warning...

The current cold front will move SE, toward the Windward Passage
this weekend, moving E of the Atlantic Ocean approach by Saturday
evening. Strong to near gale-force NE winds will follow the
front, in the Lee of Cuba, through the Windward Passage, and in
the Lee of Hispaniola. These winds are forecast to increase to
minimal gale-force on Sunday night, diminishing to strong to near
gale-force by early Monday. The sea heights are forecast to build
to 8 feet to 12 feet with these winds.

A second area of gale-force winds is forecast to develop in the
waters that are off the coast of Colombia, in 48-hours, from 11N
to 13N between 74W and 76W. The sea heights are forecast to reach
9 feet.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST: MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC, the latest OFFSHORE FORECAST: MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC, or go
to the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml,
from the NWS National Hurricane Center, for more details.

Western Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning: A cold front is passing
through Bermuda, to 31N70W, 30N72W, across Andros Island in the
NW Bahamas, and beyond NW Cuba, into the Caribbean Sea. The gale-
force NW winds, that have been from 30N to 31N between 78W and
80.5W, will be slowing down, soon, to less than gale-force speeds.
Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST: MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC, the latest OFFSHORE FORECAST: MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC, or go
to the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml,
from the NWS National Hurricane Center, for more details.

Eastern Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning: Please refer to the
METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast, that is listed on the website:
the website: www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-
marine/bulletin/grandlarge/metarea2. Gale-force winds are forecast
for the areas: AGADIR, CANARIAS, and TARFAYA. The Meteo-France
forecast, listed under the WMO header WONT50 LFPW, or at
http://www.gmdss.org/bulletins/METAREA2.HIGH_SEAS_WARNING.1920.
061920095563.txt, has these conditions prevailing through early
Saturday. A third website to use as a reference is:
weather.gmdss.org/ll.html, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal border areas of
Guinea/Sierra Leone, to 05N17W, 05N22W, and 03N26W. The ITCZ
continues from 03N26W, through the Equator along 35W, to the
coastal plains of Brazil near 04S40W. Precipitation: isolated to
widely scattered moderate and isolated strong is from 06N
southward from 50W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

The cold front has exited from the Gulf of Mexico completely.
Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds and possible
rainshowers are from 23N southward.

A surface ridge passes through the easternmost parts of Texas,
into the Texas coastal waters, to a 1029 mb high pressure center
that is near 21N97W at the coast of Mexico, continuing to the
Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico.

A cold front has shifted to the SE of the Gulf of Mexico. Strong
high pressure has been building into the area from the northwest.
The high pressure will support fresh to strong N to NE winds,
mainly across the eastern half of the Gulf waters, through
Saturday evening, then NE to E winds from Saturday night through
Monday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Gale-force winds are being forecast, in about 48 hours, from 16N
to 20N between 73W and 77W, including in the Windward Passage.
Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section.

A cold front is passing across Andros Island in the NW Bahamas,
across NW Cuba near 23N81W, across La Isla de la Juventud of Cuba,
to 21N85W. The front becomes stationary from 21N85W to 20N86W,
and to western Honduras. Precipitation: broken to overcast
multilayered clouds and isolated moderate rainshowers are to the
NW of the line that runs from 80W in Cuba, to 19N85W, to 86W in
Honduras.

Rainshowers are possible, elsewhere, in clusters of broken low
level clouds, in tradewind flow, across the area.

24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that
ended at 07/0000 UTC, according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE
AND PRECIPITATION TABLES, MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC, are: 0.14 in
Guadeloupe.

The current cold front will move SE, and reach from E Cuba to the
central Gulf of Honduras on Saturday afternoon; from central
Hispaniola to the Honduras-Nicaragua border on Sunday morning;
then stall from the Virgin Islands into the central Caribbean Sea
on Monday. Strong to brief gale-force NE winds and large seas
will develop behind the front across the Caribbean
Sea and through the Atlantic Ocean Passages through late Monday,
including in the lee of Cuba, and off the southern coast of
Hispaniola on Sunday night. Strong winds in the south central
Caribbean Sea will pulse to minimal gale-force each night near
the coast of Colombia from Sunday through Tuesday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front is passing through Bermuda, to 31N70W, 30N72W,
across Andros Island in the NW Bahamas, across NW Cuba near
23N81W, across La Isla de la Juventud of Cuba, to 21N85W. The
front becomes stationary from 21N85W to 20N86W, and to western
Honduras. Precipitation: isolated to widely scattered moderate and
isolated strong are within 220 nm to the east of the cold front
from 26N northward. Other rainshowers are possible within 150 nm
to the east of the cold front from Cuba to 26N.

One surface trough is along 28N44W 24N47W 21N53W. Precipitation:
rainshowers are possible within 75 nm on either side of the
trough.

A second surface trough is along 30N34W 25N33W 22N29W.
Precipitation: rainshowers are possible within 120 nm on either
side of the trough.

The current cold front will move SE, and reach from 29N65W to
eastern Cuba on Saturday morning; from 25N65W to Hispaniola on
Saturday evening; then stall and weaken in the SE waters from
Sunday night through Monday. NW gale-force winds are expected
across the waters N of 29N behind the front until about midnight.
Strong winds and large seas, developing behind the front, will
prevail through most of the forecast period, elsewhere.

$$
MT
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