[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 062235
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
535 PM EST Fri Mar 6 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A cold front will move SE toward the
Windward Passage this weekend, moving E of the approach by Sat
evening. Strong to near gale force NE winds will follow the
front, in the Lee of Cuba, through the Windward Passage, and in
the Lee of Hispaniola. These winds are forecast to increase to
minimal gale force Sun night, diminishing back to strong to near
gale force by early Mon. Seas are forecast to build to 8-12 ft
with these winds. Please refer to the Atlantic High Seas Forecast
under the AWIPS header MIAHSFAT2 and under the WMO header FZNT02
KNHC or at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more
details.

West Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front was analyzed from near
32N70W to across the northern Bahamas to NW Cuba and the Straits
of Florida near 23N81W. Scattered thunderstorms are noted N of 26N
within 210 nm E of the front. Gale force winds in frequent gusts
are forecast on either side of the front N of 27N, through early
Sat. Elsewhere behind the front, strong winds through the forecast
period. Seas will be 8-12 ft overnight, then will build to 10-15
ft by early Sat. Please refer to the Atlantic High Seas Forecast
under the AWIPS header MIAHSFAT2 and under the WMO header FZNT02
KNHC or at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more
details.

East Atlantic Gale Warning: Earlier scatterometer data depicted
gale force winds in the areas of Agadir, with similar winds
forecast locally in Tarfaya and Canarias. Meteo-France has these
conditions prevailing through early Sat. Please refer to the
Meteo-France High Seas Forecast under the WMO header WONT50 LFPW
or at http://www.gmdss.org/bulletins/
METAREA2.HIGH_SEAS_WARNING.1920.061920095563.txt for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near the
Guinea/Sierra Leone border at 09N13W to 05N20W to 02N32W. The
ITCZ continues from 02N32W to the equator at 34W, and continuing
to the coast of Brazil near 03S42W. Scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is noted from 01N to 07N between 12W
and 17W, S of the monsoon trough to the equator between 19W and
26W, from 01N to 04N between 26W and 33W, and also from 02N to 04N
between 35W and 38W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front was analyzed SE of the basin from the Straits of
Florida into the NW Caribbean Sea to the S of the Yucatan Channel,
with a reinforcing, but dissipating cold front analyzed from near
30N84W to 28N90W. Recent scatterometer imagery showed fresh to
strong winds across much of the basin, except moderate to fresh in
the NW and W-central Gulf. Seas are mainly 5-8 ft, except lower
nearshore in the northern Gulf.

High pressure building in the wake of the front will continue to
support fresh to strong N to NE winds, mainly across the eastern
half of the Gulf waters, through Sat evening, then NE to E winds
Sat night through early next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section for more details about
the Gale Warning in effect in the Caribbean Sea.

A cold front is analyzed from western Cuba near 22.5N82W to S of
the Yucatan Channel, becoming stationary as it extends offshore of
Belize to near the Nicaragua/Guatemala border at 16N88W. Fresh to
strong winds are following the front through the Yucatan Channel,
along with building seas approaching 8 ft. Elsewhere, fresh to
strong trades were noted over the central Caribbean S of 18N, as
well as in the eastern Caribbean, with light to moderate trades
elsewhere. Seas are mainly 6-9 ft in the central Caribbean, 4-7 ft
in the eastern Caribbean, and 3-5 ft elsewhere.

The cold front will reach from E Cuba to the central Gulf of
Honduras Sat afternoon, from central Hispaniola to near the
Honduras/Nicaragua border Sun morning, then stall from the Virgin
Islands into central Caribbean Mon.

Otherwise, strong winds in the S-central Caribbean are forecast to
reach minimal gale force Sun night through early Mon, continuing
to pulse at night through early next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section for more details about
the Gale Warning in effect in the SW N Atlantic Ocean.

A reinforcing but dissipating cold front was analyzed from
offshore of the Carolinas to near Jacksonville, Florida and
beyond. Otherwise, 1022 mb high pressure analyzed near 27N55W
extended a ridge W-SW toward the central Bahamas ahead of the
dominant cold front.

The front will move SE and reach from 29N65W to eastern Cuba Sat
morning, from 25N65W to Hispaniola Sat evening, then stall and
weaken over the SE waters Sun night through Mon.

E of the front, mainly moderate to locally fresh trades were
noted S of 20N, with gentle to moderate winds N of 20N. To the SE
of the high, a remnant trough was analyzed from 27N44W to 21N50W.
This trough should dissipate as we enter the weekend with high
pressure ridging building SW from NE of the area.

$$
Lewitsky
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