[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 061736
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1236 PM EST Fri Mar 6 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

West Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front extending from 31N76W to
S Florida will reach from 31N70W to the central Bahamas to
western Cuba this evening, from 29N65W to eastern Cuba Sat
morning, and from 25N65W to Hispaniola Sat evening, then stall and
weaken over the SE waters Sun night through Mon. Frequent gusts
to gale force are expected across the waters N of 29N ahead and
behind the front through this evening, with strong to minimal gale
force W of the front tonight and Sat. Please refer to the
Atlantic High Seas Forecast under the AWIPS header MIAHSFAT2 and
under the WMO header FZNT02 KNHC or at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.

East Atlantic Gale Warning: Latest scatterometer data depicts gale
force winds in the areas of Agadir and Tarfaya this morning.
Meteo-France forecast has these conditions prevailing through
early Sat. Please refer to Meteo-France products for further
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of northern Senegal
near 10N14W to 02N24W to 00N34W. The intertropical convergence
zone continues from that point to 03S40W. Scattered moderate
convection is observed south of 04N between 10W-34W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front was analyzed from 26N81W to 21N86W. The tail end of a
reinforcing front extends from the Florida Panhandle near 30N87W
to 29N90W. Scattered showers are noted along the the fronts.
No other significant shower or thunderstorm activity is observed
across the Gulf. Seas are building behind the first front, with
buoy data showing generally 5 to 7 ft. Buoy and scatterometer
data indicate moderate to fresh northerly flow across the basin.

The first front will continue southeast then exit the basin
today. Fresh to strong winds and building seas are expected
through early Sat in association with the front, and the
reinforcing front moving through the northern part of the basin.
Strong NE to E winds will prevail through the Straits of Florida
and SE Gulf through Mon night before conditions gradually improve
basin wide.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Earlier scatterometer satellite passes indicated an area of
strong trade winds over the south central Caribbean along the
coast of northeast Colombia. Seas are generally 8 to 10 ft in
this area. A cold front is entering the northwest Caribbean,
currently extending from 21N86W to 16N88W. Elsewhere, moderate to
fresh trade winds prevail with 3 to 5 ft seas. No significant
showers or thunderstorms are evident on satellite imagery or
regional radar, other than a few passing trade wind showers in the
eastern Caribbean.

Strong winds will continue across the south-central
Caribbean through Tue night, pulsing to minimal gale force near
the coast of Colombia on Sun night through Tue. The cold front
will reach from E Cuba to the central Gulf of Honduras Sat
afternoon, from central Hispaniola to near the Honduras-Nicaragua
border Sun morning, then stall from the Virgin Islands into
central Caribbean Mon. Strong to near gale force NE winds and
large seas will develop behind the front across the Caribbean and
Atlc Passages through late Mon. Gale conditions are possible in
the lee of Cuba, across the Windward Passage, and off the coast of
Hispaniola on Sun night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the section above for details on the Gale Warnings
currently in effect.

A cold front is moving off the northeast coast of Florida
currently, with a line of thunderstorms active north of 30N about
180 nm east of the front. Recent scatterometer satellite data
shows fresh to strong SW winds ahead of the front, while fresh to
strong NW winds prevail behind the front. The axis of the
subtropical ridge has shifted slightly southward to roughly 25N,
through the central Bahamas, ahead of the advancing frontal
boundary. A 1022 mb surface high is centered near 26N57W. To the
east, a weak 1018 mb surface low is centered near 24N45W, with
surface trough extending from it to 33N46W. Scattered showers are
noted with the low/trough. The presence of the surface low has
disrupted the subtropical ridge over the area, and is maintaining
only moderate trade wind flow farther south in the deep tropical
Atlantic west of the Cabo Verde Islands. The divergence aloft on
the southeast side of the upper trough along with the trade wind
convergence in the lower levels of the atmosphere is supporting a
couple of clusters of showers and thunderstorms near the ITCZ.
Even though trade winds are suppressed, recent altimeter satellite
data shows 8 to 11 ft seas, mainly north of 15N and east of 50W,
likely due to northerly swell.

As the front continues moving east across the basin, strong winds
and large seas developing behind it will prevail most of the
forecast period. The surface low in the central Atlantic is
forecast to weaken through today as the upper support diminishes
and lifts to the northeast. This will allow trade wind flow to
increase slightly by Sat over the tropical Atlantic waters as the
ridge builds to the north.

$$

ERA
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