[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 081052
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
652 AM EDT Sun Mar 8 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1040 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...CARIBBEAN SEA GALE WARNING...

The 18-hour forecast, starting at 08/0600 UTC, from 17N to 19N
between 75W and 77W, including in the Windward Passage, consists
of NE gale-force winds. The sea heights will range from 9 feet to
13 feet. Expect, also, NE gale-force winds and sea heights
reaching 8 feet, from 17N to 18N between 70W and 71W, in the
southern coastal waters of the Dominican Republic.

A second area of gale-force winds is forecast to develop in the
waters that are off the coast of Colombia, in 18 hours, from 11N
to 12N between 74W and 76W. The sea heights are forecast to range
from 8 feet to 9 feet.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST: MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC, the latest OFFSHORE FORECAST: MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC, or go
to the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml,
from the NWS National Hurricane Center, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal border areas of
Guinea and Guinea-Bissau near 11N15W, curving to 08N17W, and
05N19W. The ITCZ continues from 05N19W, to 03N24W, and 01N29W.
Precipitation: Isolated moderate to locally strong is from 07N
southward from 50W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge passes through Louisiana, into the west central
part of the Gulf of Mexico, continuing to the Isthmus of
Tehuantepec of southern Mexico.

High pressure in the eastern U.S.A. will shift eastward, slowly,
into the Atlantic Ocean, through the forecast period, and
dominate the conditions across the Gulf of Mexico. Fresh to
strong winds, currently in the eastern waters, will diminish late
on Monday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The 18-hour forecast, starting at 08/0600 UTC, from 17N to 19N
between 75W and 77W, including in the Windward Passage, consists
of NE gale-force winds. The sea heights will range from 9 feet to
13 feet. Expect, also, NE gale-force winds and sea heights
reaching 8 feet, from 17N to 18N between 70W and 71W, in the
southern coastal waters of the Dominican Republic. Please read
the SPECIAL FEATURES section.

A second area of gale-force winds is forecast to develop in the
waters that are off the coast of Colombia, in 18 hours, from 11N
to 12N between 74W and 76W. The sea heights are forecast to range
from 8 feet to 9 feet. Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section.

A cold front is passing through 21N70W in the Atlantic Ocean about
100 nm to the north of the Dominican Republic, through the
Windward Passage, to 18N80W in the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea,
curving to 17N75W, and to the eastern part of Honduras.
Precipitation: Broken to overcast low level and middle level
clouds and possible rainshowers are to the northwest of the line
that runs from 16N70W to 13N77W, to the coast of Panama along
80W.

Rainshowers are possible, elsewhere, in clusters of broken low
level clouds, in trade wind flow, across the area.

24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that
ended at 08/0000 UTC, according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE
AND PRECIPITATION TABLES, MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC, are: 0.15 in
Guadeloupe.

The current cold front will move SE and stall, from eastern
Puerto Rico into the central Caribbean Sea on Monday. Strong winds
and large seas will prevail behind the front across the Caribbean
Sea. Expect brief gale-force winds in the lee of Cuba, the
Windward Passage, and off the southern coast of Hispaniola on
tonight. Strong winds will prevail, elsewhere, in the south
central Caribbean Sea through the forecast period. The wind speeds
will pulse to minimal gale-force tonight and on Monday night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front is about 480 nm to the east of Bermuda, passing
through 32N55W, to 28N60W, to 21N70W, through the Windward
Passage, to 18N80W in the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea.
Precipitation: Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and possible
rainshowers are within 330 nm to 430 nm to the west/northwest of
the line that passes through 32N51W to 23N58W, to the NE Caribbean
Sea islands near 18N63W. 24-hour rainfall totals that are listed
for the period that ended at 08/0000 UTC, according to the PAN
AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES, MIATPTPAN/SXCA01
KNHC, are: 0.39 in Bermuda.

The current strong cold front will move SE this weekend. It will
stall and weaken in eastern Puerto Rico and the SE waters, from
tonight through Monday. Strong winds and large seas, developing
behind the front, will prevail through Tuesday. The conditions
will start to improve during the middle of the next week.

$$
MT
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