[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 051745
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1245 PM EST Thu Mar 5 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1730 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

...GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

NE-to-E gale-force winds, that are off the coast of Colombia,
from 11N to 13N between 74W and 76W, will be slowing down, to less
than gale-force, soon. The sea heights in the same area were
forecast to be ranging from 11 feet to 13 feet. Gale-force wind
conditions are not forecast in this area for the next 48 hours or
so. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST:
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, the latest OFFSHORE FORECAST:
MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC, or go to the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, from the NWS
National Hurricane Center, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from Liberia near 07N11W to 03N19W.
The ITCZ continues from 03N19W, to 03N29W, toward the Equator
along 33W, to 01N38W, toward the Equator again along 45W.
Precipitation: scattered moderate to widely scattered strong
within 210 nm to the south/southeast of the monsoon trough between
09W and 15W, and within 210 nm to the north of the ITCZ between
31W and 38W. Isolated moderate to locally strong elsewhere from
07N southward from 46W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front is moving through the central part of the Gulf of
Mexico. A stationary front passes through NE Florida from the
Atlantic Ocean, to a 1009 mb low pressure that is just off the
coast of SW coastal Alabama. A cold front continues into the
central Gulf of Mexico, to the coast of Mexico just to the SE of
Veracruz, and inland northwestward. Precipitation: broken to
overcast multilayered clouds, and isolated moderate, to the NW of
the line that runs from 30N81W in NE Florida to the NW corner of
the Yucatan Peninsula.

The current cold front will reach from near Sarasota, Florida to
the NE of the Yucatan peninsula tonight; and then exit the basin
on Friday. Fresh to strong winds and building seas are expected
in association with the front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

NE-to-E gale-force winds, from 11N to 13N between 74W and 76W,
will be slowing down, to less than gale-force, soon. The sea
heights in that area were forecast to be ranging from 11 feet to
13 feet. Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for more
details.

The GFS model shows anticyclonic wind flow in the Caribbean Sea.
A ridge extends from northern Colombia toward the Yucatan Channel
at 250 mb. The anticyclonic circulation center is in the NW part
of the Caribbean Sea, about 130 nm to the SE of NW Cuba, at 500
mb. The anticyclonic circulation center is in the Atlantic Ocean
near 26N71W at 700 mb. Expect broad easterly wind flow in the
Caribbean Sea at 700 mb.

24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that
ended at 05/1200 UTC, according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE
AND PRECIPITATION TABLES, MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC, are: 0.18 in
Guadeloupe, 0.02 in Trinidad, and 0.02 in San Juan in Puerto
Rico.

Strong winds will continue in the south central Caribbean Sea through
Sunday night. The wind speeds will pulse to minimal gale-force
near the coast of Colombia tonight. A cold front will enter the NW
Caribbean Sea on Friday. The front will reach from Hispaniola to
the Gulf of Honduras on Saturday evening. The front will stall
from the Virgin Islands into the central Caribbean Sea by Monday.
Fresh to strong winds and building seas will prevail behind the
front. Expect increasing winds across the Windward Passage by
Saturday evening.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes just to the south of the Madeira Archipelago,
through 32N20W, to 30N29W, 29N40W, to a 1016 mb low pressure
center that is near 28N45W. A cold front curves away from the 1016
mb low pressure center to 25N43W and 21N45W. A surface trough
extends from the 1016 mb low pressure center, to 24N46W and
20N48W. Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate and
isolated strong covers the area that is from 22N northward
between 35W and 47W. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the
Atlantic Ocean from 13N northward between 34W and 54W.

A ridge across the western Atlantic Ocean will shift eastward
today, in advance of a cold front that will move off northern
Florida early Friday. The front will reach from 31N66W to western
Cuba on Friday night; from 24N65W to Hispaniola on Saturday night;
and then stall and weaken in the SE waters on Sunday and Monday.
Strong to near gale-force winds are expected in the waters N of
29N to the east of the front on Friday and Friday night. Expect
also strong winds and building seas behind the front from Friday
through Saturday.

$$
MT
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