[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 052306
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
606 PM EST Thu Mar 5 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2245 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: Strong winds will continue across
the S-central Caribbean through Sun night, pulsing to minimal
gale force near the coast of Colombia tonight. These winds are
occurring due to a locally tight pressure gradient with high
pressure ridging NE of the area, and low pressure over northern
Colombia. Seas will build to 8-11 ft with these winds. Please
refer to the Atlantic High Seas Forecast under the AWIPS header
MIAHSFAT2 and under the WMO header FZNT02 KNHC or at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from near the Sierra Leone/Liberia
border at 07N11W to 03N19W. The ITCZ continues from 03N19W to
02N30W to near the equator at 45W. Scattered moderate and isolated
strong convection is noted from 01N to 05N between 10W and 15W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted S of the ITCZ between 23W
and 32W, and also N of the ITCZ to 04N between 30W and 38W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1010 mb low pressure area was analyzed over the Florida
Panhandle near 30.5N86W. A stationary front extends ENE of the low
along the Florida/Georgia line, with a cold front extending S of
the low across the central Gulf of Mexico through 26N88W,
continuing through the Bay of Campeche to the coast of Mexico
near 18N94W. Very limited shower activity was noted in the
vicinity of the front with no organized convection. A 1030 mb high
pressure area was analyzed over northern Mexico at 28N102W,
building eastward over the western Gulf of Mexico in the wake of
the front.

The front will continue SE and reach from near Sarasota, Florida
to the NE of the Yucatan peninsula later tonight, then exit the
basin on Fri. Fresh to strong winds and building seas are expected
through early Sat in association with the front. Strong NE to E
winds will prevail through the Straits of Florida and SE Gulf
through Mon night before conditions gradually improve basin wide.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section for more details about
the Gale Warning in effect in the S-central Caribbean Sea.

Late afternoon and early evening satellite imagery indicates fair
weather across the basin with a ridge of high pressure analyzed
from the central Atlantic Ocean to across the SE Bahamas toward
the Yucatan Channel. Mainly moderate to fresh trades dominate the
basin, outside of the S-central portion, along with seas of 4-7
ft.

A cold front NW of the area in the central and SW Gulf of Mexico
will enter the NW Caribbean on Fri, reach from Hispaniola to the
Gulf of Honduras Sat evening, then stall from the Virgin Islands
into central Caribbean by Mon. Strong to near gale force NE winds
and large seas will develop behind the front across the Caribbean
and Atlc Passages as it shifts SE through Mon.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A frontal boundary was analyzed along 31N extending to a low
pressure area W of the area over the Florida Panhandle, while a
ridge axis extends from 1024 mb high pressure analyzed near 26N60W
to across the Bahamas. Thunderstorm activity is noted along the
front, mainly N of 31N, while fair weather was noted elsewhere W
of 55W. Mainly moderate anticyclonic flow dominates the basin,
along with seas of 3-6 ft.

A cold front will move off northern Florida early Fri, then will
reach from 31N66W to western Cuba Fri night, from 24N65W to
Hispaniola Sat night, then stall and weaken over the SE waters Sun
and Mon. Strong to near gale force winds are expected across the
waters N of 29N ahead of the front Fri and Fri night, with strong
winds and large seas behind the front Fri through Sat.

E of 55W, a somewhat complex weather pattern exists N of 20N, with
a pair of 1016 mb low pressure areas analyzed near 26.5N44W and
25.5N48W. A frontal boundary wraps into the eastern low extending
from 29N35W to the low, then continuing S as a cold front to near
20N46W. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted
mainly ESE of the front. These lows and the front are forecast to
gradually weaken and wash out into the early part of the weekend
with ridging building in from the NE.

$$
Lewitsky
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