[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 051134
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
634 AM EST Thu Mar 5 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1020 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

...CARIBBEAN SEA GALE WARNING...

Northeasterly gale force winds are ongoing through 05/1200 UTC.
These winds are expected to occur from 11N-12N between 74W- 75W.
Seas are forecast to be 8-12 ft. Gales will pulse again by
06/0300 UTC and end by 06/0600 UTC. Please refer to the latest
High Seas Forecast product, under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml
for further details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from Liberia near 06N11W to 04N16W.
The ITCZ continues from 04N16W to 00N25W to the coast of Brazil
near 05S37W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted
from 05S- 05N between 17W-32W. Another area of thunderstorms is
south of the monsoon trough from 02N-06N between 07W-15W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 05/0900 UTC, a 1009 mb low is located in southeast Louisiana
near 29N90W. A cold front extends S from the low to 23N92W to the
coast of Mexico near 20N96W. A stationary front extends along the
Gulf coast eastward from the low to 20N88W to the Florida
Panhandle near 30N85W. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are along the stationary front from central
Mississippi to the Florida Panhandle. The latest scatterometer
data and surface observations depict moderate to fresh southerly
winds ahead of the front with fresh to strong northerly winds
behind the cold front. Along the stationary front, winds on the
southern side are light and strong northerly winds on the northern
side. Seas range 3 to 6 ft.

The cold front will reach from the Florida Big Bend to Bay of
Campeche this evening, then exit the basin on Fri. Fresh to strong
winds and building seas are expected in association with the
front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A gale warning has been issued for the coast of N Colombia. See
above.

Scattered showers are moving across Hispaniola and Puerto Rico in
addition to the Lesser Antilles. Some showers are also reaching
eastern Honduras. A 1009 mb low is in the Gulf of Honduras near
17N88W with a surface trough from 19N88W to 15N87W. The latest
scatterometer data and surface observations depict strong trades
across the central Caribbean, near gale force winds in the Gulf
of Venezuela, and fresh to strong trades are also seen in the
Gulf of Honduras. Light to moderate trades are noted across the
rest of the basin. Seas range from 3 to 7 ft with seas up to 12
ft north of Colombia.

Strong winds will continue across the south-central Caribbean
through Sun night, pulsing to gale near the coast of Colombia
tonight. A cold front will enter the NW Caribbean on Fri, reach
from Hispaniola to the Gulf of Honduras Sat evening, then stall
from the Virgin Islands into central Caribbean by Mon. Strong
winds and large seas will prevail behind the front.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends in the extreme northwestern Atlantic
waters near Jacksonville. Meanwhile, ridging continues across most
of the western Atlantic from a 1035 mb high near 38N32W. In the
central Atlantic, a 1018 mb low is located near 29N46W with a
stationary front extending S of the low to another 1018 mb low
near 25N47W. A warm front extends north and east of the northern
low to 29N36W, stalls from that point to 29N29W, and become cold
from there to 31N34W. The southern low has a piece of a cold front
that extends S to 20N49W and a trough extending W from the low to
24N53W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
seen from 23N-31N between 39W- 48W. The latest scatterometer data
depicts fresh to strong easterly winds north of the low N of 28N
between 40W-48W. Seas are up to 12 ft near the frontal boundaries.

A ridge across the western Atlantic will shift eastward today
ahead of a cold front that will move off northern Florida early
Fri. The front will reach from 31N68W to western Cuba Fri night,
from 25N65W to Hispaniola Sat night, then stall and weaken Sun and
Mon. Near gale force winds are expected across the waters N of
29N ahead of the front Fri and Fri night, with strong winds and
building seas behind the front Fri through Sat.


$$
AReinhart
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