[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 050544
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1244 AM EST Thu Mar 5 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0520 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

...CARIBBEAN SEA GALE WARNING...

Easterly gale force winds are ongoing through 05/1800 UTC. These
winds are expected to occur from 11N-12.5N between 74W- 75W. Seas
are forecast to be 10-13 ft. Gales will pulse once again by
06/0300 UTC and end by 06/1200 UTC. Please refer to the latest
High Seas Forecast product, under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml
for further details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from Sierra Leone near 08N13W to
04N15W. The ITCZ continues from 04N15W to 00N25W to the coast of
Brazil near 03S39W. Clusters of scattered moderate to strong
convection are from 05S-05N between 10W-32W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 05/0300 UTC, a 1008 mb low is along the west-central
Louisiana coast near 29N92W. A cold front extends S from the low
to 24N93W to the coast of Mexico near 20N96W. A stationary front
extends along the Gulf coast eastward from the low to 20N88W to
the Florida Panhandle near 30N86W. Scattered showers are along the
stationary front from central Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle.
The latest scatterometer data and surface observations depict
moderate to fresh southerly winds ahead of the front with fresh to
strong northerly winds behind the cold front. Along the
stationary front, winds on the southern side are light and strong
northerly winds on the northern side. Seas range 3 to 6 ft.

Southerly return flow will prevail through Thu across the Gulf
ahead of a cold front. The front will move SE and reach from SE
Louisiana to the central Bay of Campeche late tonight, from the
Florida Big Bend to the eastern Bay of Campeche Thu evening, then
exit the basin on Fri. Fresh to strong winds and building seas are
expected in association with the front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A gale warning has been issued for the coast of N Colombia. See
above.

A surface trough is over the E Caribbean Sea from 17N65W to
10N65W. Scattered showers are within 180 nm of the trough.
Scattered showers are also over the higher elevations of
Hispaniola in addition to moving over the Lesser Antilles into
Puerto Rico. The latest scatterometer data and surface
observations depict strong trades across the central Caribbean
with near gale force winds in the Gulf of Venezuela with fresh to
strong trades are also seen in the Gulf of Honduras. Light to
moderate trades are noted across the rest of the basin. Seas range
from 3 to 6 ft with seas up to 12 ft north of Colombia.

A weakening Atlantic ridge in the central Atlantic will remain in
place through Thu night before shifting eastward. Strong to near
gale force winds will continue across the south-central Caribbean
through Sun night, pulsing to minimal gale force near the coast of
Colombia at night through Thu night. A strong cold front will
enter the NW Caribbean on Fri, then reach from Hispaniola to the
Gulf of Honduras Sat evening, then begin to stall from the Virgin
Islands to central Caribbean Mon. Strong winds and large seas will
prevail area wide behind the front Sat evening through Mon.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Ridging continues across the western Atlantic from a 1036 mb high
near 37N35W. In the central Atlantic, a 1016 mb low is located
near 26N46W with a cold front extending S of the low to 20N51W. A
warm front extends north and east of the low to 28N41W. A cold
front enters the waters near 30N26W and extends westward to the
warm front. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
adjacent to the low from 23N-32N between 38W-48W. The latest
scatterometer data depicts fresh to strong easterly winds north of
the low N of 28N between 40W-48W. Seas are up to 12 ft near this
low.

A weakening Atlantic ridge extending from central Atlantic SW to
central Bahamas will remain in place through Thu night before
shifting eastward. A cold front will move off northern Florida by
early Fri, then reach from 31N68W to western Cuba by Fri evening,
and from 25N65W to Hispaniola Sat evening, then begin to stall
from the Virgin Islands to central Caribbean Mon. Near gale force
winds are expected across the waters N of 29N ahead of the front
Fri and Fri night, with strong winds and building seas behind the
front Fri and Sat.

$$
AReinhart
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