[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 041042
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
542 AM EST Wed Mar 4 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1020 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

...Gale conditions expected over the south-central Caribbean...

Pressure gradient over the south central Caribbean will
support gale force winds mainly south of 12N between 76W-78W.
These conditions will continue through 04/1200 UTC, then pulse
once again on Wed night. Seas will range between 8 to 13 ft.
Please refer to the latest High Seas Forecast product, under
AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from Sierra Leone near 07N12W to
04N15W. The ITCZ extends from 04N15W to 00N30W to the coast of
Brazil near 03S41W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is
south of the monsoon trough and part of the ITCZ from 03S-07N
between 09W-20W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection
is along the ITCZ from 05S- 06N between 22W-35W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging extends across the eastern Gulf from a high in
the central Atlantic. Scattered showers are moving across the
northern Gulf from the southeast Texas coast to the western
Florida Panhandle. Patchy fog is being reported across the
northwestern and north- central Gulf, mainly N of 26N and W of
87W. The latest scatterometer data and surface observations depict
gentle to moderate southeasterly winds along the coastline with
moderate to fresh winds across the rest of the basin. Seas range
from 3 to 6 ft throughout the Gulf.

Southerly return flow will prevail across the region today ahead
of a cold front moving into the NW Gulf tonight. The front will
move SE to extend from the Florida Big Bend to the Bay of Campeche
Thu afternoon, then exit the basin on Fri. Fresh to strong winds
are expected in association with the front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the Gale Warning
currently in effect.

A shear line extends along 20N from 51W-75W which is bringing
showers across Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and adjacent waters. A
trough is east of the Lesser Antilles from 18N61W to 12N61W.
Isolated showers are seen moving across these islands. The latest
scatterometer data depicts strong easterly winds north of Colombia
in addition to the Gulf of Venezuela and fresh to strong winds in
the Windward Passage. Moderate to fresh trades are noted across
the rest of the basin. Seas range from 5 to 8 ft, with 9 ft north
of Colombia.

Strong to near gale force winds will continue across the south-
central Caribbean through Sun night, pulsing to gale force near
the coast of Colombia tonight. A ridge over the western Atlantic
will weaken and shift eastward through Thu night. A cold front
will enter the NW Caribbean on Fri, then reach from Haiti to
Honduras Sat evening, and dissipate on Sun.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1032 mb high is centered over the central Atlantic near 37N46W.
A cold front is moving across the central Atlantic from 31N34W to
28N40W, then becomes stationary from that point to 21N48W. A
shear line follows the stationary front from 21N48W to northern
Hispaniola. An area of thunderstorms is along the cold/stationary
front between 37W-45W with scattered moderate convection north of
the front from 26N-33N between 38W-47W. A mid- level low is
centered near 29N51W with a surface trough from 27N51W to 22N53W.
An area of strong convection is near this feature from 24N- 29N
between 48W- 52W. To the east, surface ridging prevails and is
anchored by a 1027 mb surface high centered near 33N20W. The
latest scatterometer data depicts fresh to strong northeasterly
winds behind the cold front with seas up to 12 ft. Fresh southerly
winds are noted in the western Atlantic N of 27N and W of 70W.

A cold front will move off northern Florida by early Fri, then
reach from 25N65W to Hispaniola Sat evening. Strong SW winds are
expected in northern waters ahead of the front, with stronger
winds and building seas behind the front Fri and Sat.

$$
AReinhart
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