[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 041720
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1220 PM EST Wed Mar 4 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

...GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

The NE-to-E gale-force winds are off the coast of Colombia,
from 11N to 12.5N between 74W and 76W. The sea heights are ranging
from 9 feet to 12 feet. The gale-force wind conditions will last
until the afternoon today. The wind speeds will slow down, and be
less than gale-force, tonight. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS
FORECAST: MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, the latest OFFSHORE FORECAST:
MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC, or go to the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, from the NWS
National Hurricane Center, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from Sierra Leone near 07N12W to
07N14W, to 04N15W and 03N16W. The ITCZ continues from 03N16W,
to 02N26W, 02N30W, crossing the Equator along 35W, and curving to
03S42W at the coast of Brazil. Precipitation: scattered moderate
to strong from 04N southward between 17W and 22W. Isolated
moderate to locally strong elsewhere from 07N southward between
18W and 37W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough extends from the Deep South of Texas, to a
1003 mb low pressure center that is near 24N97.5W along the coast
of Mexico, to 19N95.5W in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico.
An inland cold front is moving through south central Texas at
this moment. A 1002 mb low pressure center is in Texas, about 375
nm to the north of the Mexico coast 1003 mb low pressure center.
Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and possible rainshowers
are to the north of the line 28N82W 27N90W 21N97W, from Florida
to the north central Gulf of Mexico, to the coast of Mexico.

Southerly return flow will prevail across the Gulf of Mexico
today, in advance of a cold front that is forecast to be moving
into the NW Gulf by this afternoon. The front will move SE. The
front will extend from SE Louisiana to the central Bay of
Campeche tonight, and from the Florida Big Bend to the eastern
Bay of Campeche on Thursday evening. The cold front is forecast
to exit the basin on Friday. Fresh to strong winds and building
sea heights are expected in association with the cold front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

NE-to-E gale-force winds are present, off the coast of Colombia,
from 11N to 12.5N between 74W and 76W. The sea heights are ranging
from 9 feet to 12 feet. Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section
for more details.

A surface trough is in the eastern part of the Caribbean Sea,
along 62W/63W, from 20N southward to Venezuela. Precipitation:
rainshowers are possible from 10N to 20N between 55W and 70W,
broken low level clouds.

The GFS model shows anticyclonic wind flow in the Caribbean Sea.
An anticyclonic circulation center is in northern Colombia at 250
mb. The anticyclonic circulation center is in the NW part of the
Caribbean Sea, near 18N87W, just off the coasts the SE part of the
Yucatan Peninsula and Belize, at 500 mb. The anticyclonic
circulation center is in the Bahamas near 25N76W at 700 mb.

24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that
ended at 04/1200 UTC, according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE
AND PRECIPITATION TABLES, MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC, are: 0.09
in Guadeloupe, 0.04 in Trinidad, and 0.02 in San Juan in Puerto
Rico.

Strong to near gale force winds will continue across the south
central Caribbean Sea through Sunday night. The wind speeds will
pulse to minimal gale force near the coast of Colombia, from
tonight into early Thursday morning, and then from Thursday night
into early Friday morning. A western Atlantic Ocean ridge will
weaken and shift eastward through Thursday night. A cold front
will enter the NW Caribbean Sea on Friday. The front will reach
from Hispaniola to the Gulf of Honduras on Saturday evening, and
gradually dissipate on Sunday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 32N29W, to 30N32W, 28N40W, to a 1016
mb low pressure center that is near 26N49W. A surface trough
extends from the 1016 mb low pressure center, to 24N50W and
24N53W. Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate and
isolated strong covers the area that is from 23N northward
between 34W and 41W.

Rainshowers are possible, also, from 20N to 25N between 50W and
70W. This possible precipitation is related to a shear line that
was present for the map analysis of 04/0600 UTC.

A cold front will move off northern Florida by early Friday.
The front will reach from 31N68W to western Cuba by Friday
evening, and from 25N65W to Hispaniola on Saturday evening. Fresh
to strong SW winds are expected in the northern waters ahead of
the front on Friday and Friday night. Stronger winds and building
seas will be behind the front on Friday and Saturday.

$$
MT
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