[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 040552
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1251 AM EST Wed Mar 4 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0520 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

...Gale conditions expected over the south-central Caribbean...

Pressure gradient over the south central Caribbean will tighten
tonight supporting gale force winds mainly south of 12N between
76W-78W. These conditions will continue through the morning hours,
then pulsing once again on Wed night. Seas will range between 8 to
13 ft. Please refer to the latest High Seas Forecast product,
under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from Guinea near 10N14W to 01N20W. The
ITCZ extends from 01N20W to 01S33W to the coast of Brazil near
02S44W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is south of the
monsoon trough from 01N-05N between 05W-18W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is along the ITCZ from 04S-01S between
20W-34W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging continues to extend across the basin from a high
in the central Atlantic. Patchy fog is being reported across the
northwestern and north-central Gulf, mainly N of 26N and W of
87W. The latest scatterometer data and surface observations depict
gentle to moderate southeasterly winds along covering the basin
with fresh winds over the eastern Bay of Campeche. Seas range from
3 to 6 ft across the whole area.

Southerly return flow will prevail across the Gulf through Wed
ahead of a cold front expected to come off the Texas coast by Wed
afternoon. Dense fog is expected over the NW and NE Gulf coastal
waters through Wed morning. The front will move SE and extend from
the Florida Big Bend to the eastern Bay of Campeche Thu afternoon
and exit the basin late Fri morning. Fresh to strong winds are
expected ahead and behind the front during the forecast period.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the Gale Warning
currently in effect.

The tail end of a stationary front extends along 20N from 60W-74W
which is enhancing convection across Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and
adjacent waters. A trough is east of the Lesser Antilles from
18N60W to 09N61W. Isolated showers are seen moving across these
islands. The latest scatterometer data depicts strong easterly
winds north of Colombia in addition to the Gulf of Venezuela,
while moderate to fresh trades are noted elsewhere. Seas range
from 5 to 8 ft, with 9 ft north of Colombia.

A ridge over the western Atlantic extending SW to the NW Bahamas
will remain in place through Wed night then weaken Thu and Thu
night before shifting E. A cold front will enter the NW Caribbean
by Fri morning, reach from Haiti to Honduras by Sat evening before
dissipating early on Sun. Strong to near gale force winds will
continue in the south-central Caribbean through Sat night, except
pulsing to gale force off the coast of Colombia each night through
Thu night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1033 mb high is centered over the central Atlantic near 37N50W.
A cold front is moving across the central Atlantic from 31N35W to
23N46W, then becomes stationary from that point to 20N74W.
An area of numerous strong convection associated with a mid-level
trough digging over the central Atlantic is noted behind the front
from 25N-28N between 48W-53W. A larger area of scattered moderate
convection is noted from 21N-32N between 41W-53W. To the east,
surface ridging prevails and is anchored by a 1027 mb surface
high centered near 34N18W. The latest scatterometer data depicts
fresh to strong northeasterly winds behind the cold front with
seas up to 12 ft. Fresh to strong southerly winds are noted in the
western Atlantic N of 27N and W of 70W.

High pressure ridge extending from the central Atlantic SW to the
NW Bahamas will remain in place, and weaken modestly Wed night
through Thu. A cold front will move into the NW waters Thu night,
then reach from 25N65W to Hispaniola by Sat evening. Strong to
near gale force winds and building seas are expected across the
waters N of 27N ahead of the front, and behind the front Thu
evening through Sat night.

$$
AReinhart
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