[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 012333
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
633 PM EST Sun Mar 1 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL IN SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA...

Periods of heavy rainfall are expected today across the southern
portions of central America, particularly eastern Costa Rica and
northeastern Panama, in association with strong northerly onshore
flow behind a slow moving frontal boundary. Please monitor the
latest forecasts from your local or national meteorological
service for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Sierra
Leone near 08N13W to 01S22W. The ITCZ begins from 01S22W to the
coast of Brazil near 03S39W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted within 75 nm on either sides of the ITCZ mainly west of 21W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge prevails across the basin, anchored by a 1026 mb
high pressure centered near 28N84W. Broad surface anticyclonic
wind flow spans across the Gulf of Mexico. Scatterometer data and
surface observations depict moderate to fresh southeasterly winds
across the basin. Seas are ranging between 6 to 8 ft in the
western Gulf and between 2 to 5 ft in the eastern Gulf. Lower
level water vapor also show high clouds streaming across Texas and
making it into the northern Gulf of Mexico. No significant
convection is noted in the area.

High pressure ridge will prevail across the Gulf through Wed
before retreating E. This will enable a cold front to move into
the NW Gulf. The front will shift across the Gulf, shifting SE of
the area by Fri morning. High pressure will build in the wake of
the front once again through the weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front extends from 18N74W to the coast of Nicaragua
near 11N84W. Cloudiness and scattered showers are noted along and
west of the front, affecting Haiti, Jamaica and eastern Cuba.
Scattered showers are also noted across the Lesser Antilles
westward into Puerto Rico. The latest scatterometer data and
surface observations depict fresh to strong NE winds off the
south-central coast of Cuba and the Windward Passage ahead of the
stationary front west of 78W. Fresh easterly winds are noted north
of Colombia, while gentle to moderate easterly trades prevail
across the remainder of the basin. Seas are up to 7 ft behind the
front in the NW Caribbean, up to 9 ft north of Colombia, and
between 3 to 6 ft in the eastern and central basin.

The stationary front will dissipate tonight. The next cold front
will enter the NW Caribbean by early Fri. Strong winds will pulse
to near gale force each night off the coast of Colombia through
Fri night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A slow moving cold front extends from 31N55W to 22N64W, then
stalls from that point to northern Hispaniola near 19N70W. To the
west, a reinforcing cold front extends from 31N65W to 29N68W. The
latest scatterometer data depicts fresh to strong northwesterly
winds behind the reinforcing front. Surface ridging prevails
across the remainder of the basin, anchored by a 1025 mb high
centered near 30N27W.

The front will weaken and then dissipate by early Tue. High
pressure will prevail elsewhere through mid-week. The next cold
front will enter the far NW forecast waters Thu night.

$$

ERA
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