[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 011751
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1251 PM EST Sun Mar 1 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL IN SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA...

Periods of heavy rainfall are expected today across the southern
portions of central America, particularly eastern Costa Rica and
northeastern Panama, in association with strong northerly onshore
flow behind a slow moving front. Please monitor the latest
forecasts from your local or national meteorological service for
more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Sierra
Leone near 08N12W to 01S21W. The ITCZ begins from 01S21W to
the coast of Brazil near 03S38W. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is seen from 00N-03N between 15W-18W along
the monsoon trough and isolated moderate convection elsewhere.
Scattered moderate convection is present on either side of the
ITCZ from 07S-02N and west of 19W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge prevails across the basin, anchored by a 1026 mb
high pressure centered near 28N83W. Broad surface anticyclonic
wind flow spans across the Gulf of Mexico. Scatterometer data and
surface observations depict moderate to fresh southeasterly winds
west of 89W. Moderate northeasterly winds prevail across the eastern
Gulf. Seas are 6 to 7 ft in the western Gulf and 3 to 4 ft in the
eastern Gulf. Lower level water vapor also show high clouds
streaming across Texas and making it into the northern Gulf of
Mexico. No significant convection is noted in the area.

High pressure ridge will extend WSW across the Gulf through Wed
before retreating E in response to the next cold front. The front
will reach the Texas coast Wed, then pass to the E of the Gulf by
Fri morning. Strong SE to S winds developing ahead of the front
will affect most of the Gulf Tue night. Strong winds W of the
front will mainly affect the western Gulf Thu night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front extends from central Hispaniola near 18N72W
to the coast of Nicaragua near 11N83W. Cloudiness and scattered
showers are noted along and west of the front. A pre-frontal
trough is noted east of Puerto Rico from 21N63W to 16N66W.
Scattered light showers are moving across the Lesser Antilles
westward into Puerto Rico. The latest scatterometer data and
surface observations depict near gale force winds off the south-
central coast of Cuba, and fresh to strong NE winds along the
Windward Passage ahead of the stationary front north of 78W.
Fresh to strong to near gale force winds are north of Colombia
with moderate easterly trades across the central Caribbean. Light
to gentle winds are in the eastern basin. Seas are up to 10 ft
behind the cold front in the NW Caribbean, up to 9 ft north of
Colombia, and 3 to 6 ft in the eastern and central basin.

The stationary front extending from SE Haiti will dissipate
tonight. Fresh to strong N to NE winds across the northwestern
Caribbean, including lee of Cuba and Windward Passage, will
diminish Tue as high pres over the western Atlc shifts E. Fresh
to strong SE winds will develop Tue over the far western
Caribbean, including the Yucatan Channel and Gulf of Honduras, and
continue through early Thu as a Gulf of Mexico cold front
approaches the Yucatan Channel. The front is expected to reach the
far NW Caribbean by Thu night. Strong to near gale force winds
will continue along and near the coast of Colombia through Thu
night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A slow moving cold front extends from 30N56W to 28N58W, then
stalls to northern Hispaniola near 19N70W. To the west, a
reinforcing cold front extends from 31N69W to 30N76W. The latest
scatterometer data depicts strong to near gale force northwesterly
winds north of 30N behind the first front near 56W. Surface
ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin, anchored by a
1025 mb high centered near 29N22W. A pair of surface troughs were
analyzed from 30N35W to 21N38W, and from 20N33W to 13N36W.
Scattered showers are noted along the second trough.

The stationary front will dissipate by early Tue. High pressure
will head ENE from the far NE Gulf of Mexico to just N of Bermuda
by Tue night. The next cold front will enter the far NW forecast
waters Thu night. Strong SW winds preceding the front will affect
the waters N of the Bahamas Thu.

$$
MMTorres
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