[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 020550
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1250 AM EST Mon Mar 2 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0520 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Sierra
Leone near 07N11W to 01S23W. The ITCZ begins from 01S23W to 02S31W
to the coast of Brazil near 03S40W. An area of strong convection
is noted along the ITCZ from 04S-01N between 21W-30W. Scattered
moderate convection is along the monsoon trough from 02S-06N
between 08W-19W.


GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge prevails across the basin, anchored by a 1026 mb
high pressure centered over the western Atlantic. Scatterometer
data and surface observations depict moderate to fresh
southeasterly winds across the basin. Strong easterly winds are
north of the Yucatan. Seas are ranging between 6 to 8 ft in the
western Gulf and between 2 to 5 ft in the eastern Gulf. Lower
level water vapor also show high clouds streaming across Texas and
making it into the northern Gulf of Mexico. No significant
convection is noted in the area.

High pressure ridge will prevail across the Gulf through Wed
before retreating E. This will enable a cold front to move into
the NW Gulf. The front will shift across the Gulf, shifting SE of
the area by Fri morning. High pres will build in the wake of the
front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A dying stationary front extends from the coast of Hispaniola near
18N73W to the coast of Nicaragua near 12N84W. Cloudiness and
scattered showers are noted along and west of the front, impacting
Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Jamaica and eastern Cuba. Scattered
showers are also noted across the Lesser Antilles westward into
eastern Puerto Rico. The latest scatterometer data and surface
observations depict strong to near gale force winds off the
south- central coast of Cuba and the Windward Passage. Strong to
near gale force easterly winds are noted north of Colombia, while
gentle to moderate easterly trades prevail across the remainder
of the basin. Seas are up to 8 ft behind the front in the NW
Caribbean, up to 9 ft north of Colombia, and between 3 to 6 ft in
the eastern and central basin.

The stationary will dissipate tonight. The next cold front will
enter the NW Caribbean early Fri. Strong winds will pulse to near
gale force each night off the coast of Colombia through Fri night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A slow moving cold front extends from 31N52W to 25N58W to 20N64W,
then stalls from that point to northern Hispaniola near 19N70W.
To the west, a reinforcing cold front extends from 31N60W to
29N63W. The latest scatterometer data depicts fresh to strong
northwesterly winds behind the reinforcing front. Seas are up to
12 ft near both of these fronts. Surface ridging prevails across
the remainder of the basin, anchored by a 1026 mb high centered
near 30N26W.

The primary front will dissipate early this week. High pressure
will prevail elsewhere through midweek. The next cold front will
enter the far NW forecast waters Thu night.

$$
AKR
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