[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 240602
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT Wed Jun 24 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0510 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Tropical Storm Dolly, at 24/0300 UTC, is near
40.1N 61.1W. Dolly is moving ENE, or 60 degrees, 09 knots. The
estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. The maximum
sustained wind speeds are 35 knots with gusts to 45 knots.
Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4.shtml for
more
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 22W/23W from 17N
southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: the
wave is moving through the area of nearby ITCZ precipitation.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 45W/46W from 18N
southward, moving westward 15 to 20 knots. Precipitation:
Scattered moderate to strong is from 07N to 11N between 43W and
49W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 55W/56W, from 13N
southward, moving westward 15 to 20 knots. Precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong is in parts of Brazil,
Suriname, and French Guiana from 05N southward between 53W and
59W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 84W from 18N southward,
moving westward 20 to 25 knots. Warm and stable air, that is
associated with a dense plume of Saharan dust, is limiting
significant precipitation with this wave. Precipitation:
Isolated moderate to locally strong is in the northeastern
one-third of Nicaragua.

A tropical wave is in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico, along
92W/93W from 21N southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 21N
southward from the Yucatan Peninsula westward.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal border sections of
Senegal and The Gambia, to 10N21W 07N28W and 08N34W. The ITCZ
extends from 08N34W to 07N43W and 07N55W. Precipitation: widely
scattered to scattered moderate and isolated strong is from 03N
to 09N between 23W and 32W. Scattered moderate to widely
scattered strong is from the ITCZ southward between 50W and 54W.
Isolated moderate is elsewhere from 10N southward from 60W
eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level shortwave trough is in the NW Gulf of Mexico.
Precipitation: isolated to widely scattered moderate is in the
NW corner of the Gulf of Mexico, from 25N northward from 89W
westward.

A tropical wave is in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico, along
92W/93W from 21N southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 21N
southward from the Yucatan Peninsula westward.

A surface ridge will prevail in the Gulf of Mexico through the
forecast period. Moderate to fresh southerly winds are forecast
in the western Gulf of Mexico through Thursday night, due to the
pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure in
Mexico.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The monsoon trough is along 08N/09N, from 74W in Colombia beyond
Costa Rica. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered
debris clouds, from earlier dissipating/weakening precipitation,
and residual isolated moderate to locally strong, covers the
Caribbean Sea from 13N southward from 76W westward.

GOES-16 satellite imagery has been showing that dense Saharan
dust has been covering most of the Caribbean Sea. The dry and
stable air mass that accompanies the dust is helping to bring
hazy conditions to the area, and it is helping to suppress
precipitation in the Caribbean Sea.

Fresh to strong trade winds will prevail across the south
central Caribbean Sea through the middle of the week. The area
of fresh to strong trade winds will expand to the north central
and the southwestern corner of the basin, through the end of the
week, as high pressure builds in the western Atlantic Ocean. The
Winds will pulse to near gale-force off the coast of Colombia
each night, through Sunday night. The sea heights will be
building to 12 feet and higher during the times of the fastest
wind speeds. Fresh to strong winds are expected to continue in
the Gulf of Honduras through Saturday night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough is off the coast of the SE U.S.A., along 32N78W
to 30N80W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is within 30 nm
on either side of the line that runs from 31N77W to 29N79W, to
27N81W at the NW edge of Lake Okeechobee, to 25N81W.

A surface trough is along in the north central Atlantic Ocean
along 33N53W 26N54W 20N56W. Precipitation: isolated moderate is
from 20N northward between 50W and 60W.

High pressure extends from the central Atlantic Ocean to
Florida, and it will prevail across the offshore waters through
the forecast period. Fresh to occasionally strong easterly winds
will pulse across the waters that are to the north of Hispaniola
on each night, through Sunday night.

$$
mt
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