[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 241002
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
602 AM EDT Wed Jun 24 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Recently downgraded Tropical Depression Dolly is centered near
41.7N 59.0W at 24/0900 UTC or 390 nm SW of Cape Race Newfoundland
moving NE at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb.
Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt.
Scattered moderate convection is noted within 180 nm SE
semicircle of Dolly. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4.shtml for more
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 26W south of 18N moving
westward 15 to 20 knots. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection was noted within 210 nm of the wave axis from 03N-10N.
A stable air mass associated to the Saharan Air Layer is limiting
convection north of 10N.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 47W south of 18N moving
westward 15 to 20 knots. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection was noted within 180 nm of the wave axis from 06N to
12N. Isolated tradewind showers are noted within 210 nm of the
wave axis from 12N-18N.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 60W south of 15N moving
westward 15 to 20 knots. No significant convection is noted with
this wave.

A tropical wave is crossing Central America, with axis near 85W
moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Dry and stable air, that is
associated with a dense plume of Saharan dust, is limiting
significant precipitation with this wave over the Caribbean
waters. Active convection is noted over portions of Central
America as well as over the eastern north Pacific.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 13.5N17W to 08N26W to 08N34W. The
ITCZ continues from 08N34W to 07N45W. It resumes from 07N48W to
07N57W. Aside from convection associated to the tropical waves,
scattered moderate convection is within 90 nm south of the ITCZ
between 35W and 42W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection
was noted within 150 nm north and 90 nm south of the ITCZ between
50W and 57W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level trough extends across Texas and Mexico. Upper level
divergence ahead of this trough is supporting Scattered moderate
convection over the NW Gulf, and scattered moderate isolated
strong convection over the SW Gulf. GOES-16 satellite imagery
shows that Saharan dust has moved across southern Florida and the
SE Gulf. The stable air mass that has carried this dust all the
way from Africa is limiting convection across the Se Gulf.

A surface ridge extends across the northern Gulf, while low
pressure is centered over SE Texas. The pressure gradient between
these features is supporting fresh to locally strong southerly
return flow over the NW Gulf waters. A surface trough extends
across Mexico. The pressure gradient between the ridge over the
Gulf of Mexico and the surface trough over Mexico is supporting
moderate to fresh winds over the SW Gulf. Gentle to moderate
anticyclonic wind flow around the ridge prevails over the eastern
Gulf.

Surface ridging will prevail over the Gulf waters through the
forecast period. Moderate to fresh southerly winds are forecast
over the western Gulf through Thu night due to the pressure
gradient between the ridge and lower pressure over Mexico.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

GOES-16 satellite imagery shows that dense Saharan dust covers
central and western Caribbean. The dry and stable air mass that
accompanies the dust is helping to bring hazy conditions to the
area, and is suppressing convection over these areas. The dust is
a little less dense over the eastern Caribbean. There is enough
moisture to support low topped tradewind showers across the
eastern Caribbean.

Strong to near gale force winds prevail over the south central
Caribbean. Fresh to strong winds prevail across the Gulf of
Honduras. Moderate to fresh winds prevail across much of the rest
of the Caribbean, except in the lee of Cuba where light to gentle
winds prevail.

Fresh to strong trades will prevail across the south central
Caribbean through the remainder of the week and weekend. Winds
will pulse to near gale force off the coast of Colombia each night
through Sun night with seas building to 12 ft and higher during
the strongest winds. Fresh to strong winds are expected to
continue across the Gulf of Honduras through Sat night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough is off the coast of the SE United States, along
32N79W to 29N80W. Isolated moderate to locally strong convection
is within 180 nm east of the trough. A surface ridge prevails
elsewhere across the SW N Atlantic waters. Fresh to locally
strong winds prevail north of Hispaniola. Light to gentle winds
prevail in the vicinity of the ridge axis, with gentle to moderate
winds elsewhere. High pressure extends from the central Atlantic
to Florida and will prevail across the SW N Atlantic waters
through the forecast period. Fresh to occasionally strong easterly
winds will pulse across the waters north of Hispaniola each night
through Sun night.

Farther east, a surface trough extends from 32N53W to 20N55W.
Isolated showers are in the vicinity of the trough. Gentle to
moderate winds prevail north of 20N. Moderate to fresh tradewind
flow prevails south of 20N. Another plume of dense Saharan dust is
noted in satellite imagery over the tropical waters north of 10N
and east of 40W to the coast of Africa.

$$
AL
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