[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 232315
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
715 PM EDT Tue Jun 23 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Dolly is centered near 40.1N 61.1W at 23/2100 UTC,
or 290 nm SSE of Halifax Nova Scotia, moving ENE at 10 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt.

Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4.shtml for more
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave axis near 18N south of 16N has moved off the west
coast of Africa. Isolated weak convection is noted from 07N to 11N
within 60 nm of the wave axis.

A central Atlantic tropical wave axis is near 42W south of 18N,
moving W at 15-20 kt. No significant convection is associated with
the wave at this time.

A central Atlantic tropical wave axis is near 52W south of 12N,
moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from
04N to 09N within 180 nm east of the wave axis.

A western Caribbean tropical wave axis is near 82W south of 18N,
moving W at 20-25 kt. Warm, stable air associated with a dense
plume of Saharan dust is limiting significant convection with this
wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Senegal near 14N17W
to 07N25W. The ITCZ extends from 07N25W to 05N30W to 07N40W, then
continues from 07N43W to the coast of Brazil near 04N51W.
Scattered moderate convection is occurring within 120 nm of the
ITCZ between 25W and 28W, within 60 nm of the ITCZ between 34W and
37W, and within 240 nm N of the ITCZ between 43W and 51W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper-level shortwave trough over the NW Gulf of Mexico is
supporting widespread showers and thunderstorms over the waters N
of 25N and W of 89W. Note that stronger thunderstorms are capable
of producing gusty winds and rough seas that may pose a danger to
mariners. Moderate to fresh SE winds are occurring across much of
the western Gulf, where seas are generally 4-6 ft. Elsewhere,
1017 mb high pressure is centered over the NE Gulf near 28N85W.
Light to gentle winds prevail in the vicinity of this surface
high, with seas 3 ft or less.

Surface ridging will prevail over the Gulf waters through the
forecast period. Moderate to fresh southerly winds are forecast
over the western Gulf through Thu night as the pressure gradient
tightens between the ridge and lower pressure over Mexico.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

GOES-16 satellite imagery shows dense Saharan dust covers most
of the Caribbean this evening. This dry, stable air mass continues
to produce hazy conditions and suppress convection across the
region. The surface pressure gradient remains enhanced between
high pressure north of the area and the Colombian low. As a
result, fresh trades are found across much of the Caribbean, with
strong to near gale-force winds in the south-central waters near
the coast of Colombia. Wave heights are 8-13 ft in this region.
Elsewhere, moderate trades prevail across the far eastern
Caribbean, where seas are generally in the 4-7 ft range.

Fresh to strong trades over the south-central Caribbean will
expand to the north-central and southwest basin through the middle
of the week as high pressure builds over the western Atlantic.
Winds will pulse to near gale force off the coast of Colombia each
night through Sat night with seas building to 12 ft and higher
during the strongest winds. Fresh to strong winds are expected to
continue across the Gulf of Honduras through Sat night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A broad surface ridge extends across the western Atlantic offshore
waters and into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Radar imagery depicts
some showers and thunderstorms moving off the NE coast of Florida
this evening. Light to gentle winds prevail N of 22N and W of
55W. A weak surface trough is analyzed in the central Atlantic
from 30N52W to 22N56W, but no significant weather is associated
with this feature. Elsewhere, fresh trades prevail over the
Tropical N Atlantic waters, with locally strong winds farther east
near the Canary Islands and Cabo Verde. A recent altimeter pass
indicates seas are 7-9 ft within the fresh trades along 45W.

High pressure extends from the central Atlantic to Florida and
will prevail across the offshore waters through the forecast
period. Fresh to occasionally strong easterly winds will pulse
across the waters north of Hispaniola each night through Sat
night.

$$
B Reinhart
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net