[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 231811 CCA
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
210 PM EDT Tue Jun 23 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1720 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Dolly is centered near 39.4N 61.7W at 23/1700 UTC
or 330 nm S of Halifax Nova Scotia moving ENE at 11 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is within 150 nm southeast semicircle
of the center.

Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4.shtml for
more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 40W south of 19N, moving
W at 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 06N-13N
within 180 nm of the wave axis.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 81W south of 18N, moving W at
25 to 30 kt. A stable air mass associated with a dense plume of
Saharan dust is limiting significant convection with this wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Mauritania near
18N17W to 08N25W. The ITCZ continues from 08N25W to 07N40W.
It then resumes from 06N41W to the coast of Brazil near 03N51W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted within 50 nm of the ITCZ
from 41W-51W. There is also an area of scattered moderate
convection near the monsoon trough and ITCZ from 05N-10N between
22W-28W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper-level trough over the northwest Gulf of Mexico is
enhancing upper-level diffluence over the north-central Gulf
in a moist environment. A squall line is fairly stationary
over the NW Gulf, from 26N-28N between 90W-96W. Scattered
moderate to strong convection is also moving off the middle
Texas coast,  from 27N-29N W of 97W. A 1017 mb high pressure
is centered near 27N83W. Moderate to fresh SSE winds prevail
over the western Gulf. Gentle to moderate winds prevail over
the SE Gulf, and light to gentle winds prevail in the vicinity
of the high pressure center. Seas range 1-3 ft in the eastern
Gulf, and 4-6 ft in the western Gulf.

Surface ridging will prevail over the Gulf waters through the
forecast period. Moderate to fresh southerly winds are forecast
over the western Gulf through Thu night as the pressure gradient
tightens between the ridge and lower pressure over Mexico.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

GOES-16 satellite imagery shows dense Saharan dust covers most
of the Caribbean. This dry, stable air mass is inhibiting
convection across the region. The exception is the far SW
Caribbean, where the east Pacific monsoon trough is enhancing
scattered moderate to strong convection south of 10N and west of
80W, including over portions of Panama and Costa Rica. At the
surface, the pressure gradient between high pressure north of the
area and climatological low pressure over Colombia is producing
fresh to strong trades across the central Caribbean, reaching
near gale force near the coast of Colombia. Fresh to strong winds
prevail over the Gulf of Honduras, and moderate winds are noted
over the remainder of the NW Caribbean. Fresh winds prevail over
the eastern Caribbean. Seas range 5 to 7 ft with 12 ft north of
Colombia where the strongest winds are occurring.

Fresh to strong trades over the south-central Caribbean will
expand to the north-central and southwest basin through the
middle of the week as high pressure builds over the western
Atlantic. Winds will pulse to near gale force off the coast of
Colombia each night through Sat night with seas building to 12 ft
and higher during the strongest winds. Fresh to strong winds are
expected to continue across the Gulf of Honduras through Sat
night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See section above for information on Tropical Storm Dolly.

A broad surface ridge covers the western Atlantic, with light to
gentle wind speeds north of 22N west of 60W. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is seen west of the Bahamas from
24N-27N between 68W-74W. Farther east, a surface trough extends
from 33N52W to 27N53W to 21N58W. Isolated showers are near the
trough axis. In the tropics, fresh trades prevail S of 20N.

High pressure extends from the central Atlantic to Florida and
will prevail across the offshore waters through the forecast
period. Fresh to occasionally strong easterly winds will pulse
across the waters north of Hispaniola each night through Sat
night.

$$
AReinhart
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