[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 201023
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
623 AM EDT Sat Jun 20 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1020 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 19W south of 18N, moving
westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection
is noted within 150 nm of the wave axis from 06N to 11N.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 41W south of 15N, moving
westward at 15 knots. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is noted within 150 nm of the wave axis from 03N to
08N.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 61W south of 20N, moving
westward 15 knots. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection
is noted within 210 nm east of the wave axis from 11N to 15N.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 72W south of 18N, moving
westward at 10 to 15 knots. There is limited convection associated
to this wave.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 82W south of 20N, moving
westward at 10 to 15 knots. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection was noted within 60 nm west and 150 nm east of the wave
axis from 09N to 12N.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 17N16W to 12N22W. The ITCZ
continues from 12N22W to 06N40W. It resumes from 04N43W to
05N51W. Aside from convection mentioned in the tropical waves
section above, isolated moderate to strong convection is noted
within 300 nm south of the ITCZ between 25W and 33W. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 120 nm south
of the ITCZ west of 43W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough extends from near Cape Coral, Florida to the
Yucatan Peninsula. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection
is over the SE Gulf, east of the trough. Gentle to moderate winds
prevail over much of the Gulf waters, except over the NE Gulf
where light to gentle winds are noted.

A ridge will dominate the Gulf waters during the next several
days. Gentle to moderate easterly winds and slight seas are
expected through Sun. Moderate to fresh southerly winds are
forecast over the western Gulf Mon night through Tue night as the
pressure gradient tightens between the ridge and lower pressure
over Mexico.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

As is typical for this time of year, tropical waves are
traversing the Caribbean waters. Please see the tropical waves
section above.

The pressure gradient between a ridge north of the area and
climatological low pressure over Colombia is supporting strong to
near gale force winds over the south central Caribbean. Light to
gentle winds prevail over the western Caribbean. Moderate to fresh
winds prevail elsewhere over the Caribbean waters.

Fresh to strong trades over the south-central Caribbean will
expand in coverage this weekend as high pressure builds over the
western Atlantic. Winds will pulse to near gale force near the
coast of Colombia each night through Wed night. Seas are forecast
to build to 11 or 12 ft with the strongest winds.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough passes through the coastal areas of South
Carolina, to central Florida, and into the southeast Gulf of
Mexico. Upper level divergence ahead of this trough is supporting
scattered moderate and isolated strong convection extending from
the Straits of Florida, NE across the central and northern Bahamas
northward toward the waters between 32N75W and 32N70W. A surface
trough extends from 32N47W to 23N52W. Scattered moderate to strong
convection is noted north of 23N between 42W and 52W. A large
plume of Saharan dust continues to spread across the tropical
waters. Dry and hazy conditions associated with this dust plume
cover much of the waters between 10N and 20N and east of 55W to
Africa. Moderate to fresh tradewinds prevail south of 20N. Gentle
to moderate winds prevail north of 20N.

A ridge will prevail across the region through early next week.
Fresh to occasionally strong easterly winds will pulse to the
north of Hispaniola at night.

$$
AL
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