[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 200553
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT Sat Jun 20 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0520 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 35W/36W from 14N
southward, moving westward 15 knots. Precipitation: the tropical
wave is moving through the area of the ITCZ. The wave is
surrounded by ITCZ precipitation. Widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong is from 02N to 07N between 35W and 42W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 57W/58W from 20N
southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 11N to 16N between
54W and 62W. Some of the precipitation is reaching the eastern
islands of the Caribbean Sea.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 71W/72W from Hispaniola
southward, into Venezuela and Colombia. The wave is moving
westward 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: scattered strong is in
clusters from 08N to 10N between the tropical wave and 75W, in
Venezuela and Colombia. The monsoon trough is along 10N/11N
between 74W in Colombia and Costa Rica.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 80W/81W from 22N and
Cuba, southward. The wave is moving westward 10 to 15 knots.
Precipitation: scattered moderate to widely scattered strong is
from the monsoon trough to 12N between 76W and the tropical wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal border sections of
Mauritania and Senegal, to 12N22W. The ITCZ continues from
12N22W, to 06N35W, and from 06N37W 04N41W, to 05N51W.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is
from 02N to 07N between 35W and 42W.  Isolated moderate to
locally strong is elsewhere, within 450 nm to the south of the
monsoon trough and ITCZ, and within 120 nm to the north of the
ITCZ, from 54W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level trough passes through the coastal areas of South
Carolina, to central Florida, into the east central Gulf of
Mexico. Upper level cyclonic wind flow spans the Gulf of Mexico.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers
cover the areas that are from the SE Gulf of Mexico, into the
south central sections, to the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico.

A surface ridge extends from the NE corner of the Gulf of
Mexico, into the NW corner of the Gulf, to the SW corner of the
Gulf of Mexico.

A ridge will dominate the Gulf waters during the next several
days. Gentle to moderate easterly winds and slight seas are
expected through Sunday. Moderate to fresh southerly winds are
forecast in the western Gulf of Mexico from Monday night through
Tuesday night, as the pressure gradient tightens between the
ridge and lower pressure in Mexico.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 57W/58W from 20N
southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 11N to 16N between
54W and 62W. Some of the precipitation is reaching the eastern
islands of the Caribbean Sea.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 71W/72W from Hispaniola
southward, into Venezuela and Colombia. The wave is moving
westward 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: scattered strong is in
clusters from 08N to 10N between the tropical wave and 75W, in
Venezuela and Colombia. The monsoon trough is along 10N/11N
between 74W in Colombia and Costa Rica.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 80W/81W from 22N and
Cuba, southward. The wave is moving westward 10 to 15 knots.
Precipitation: scattered moderate to widely scattered strong is
from the monsoon trough to 12N between 76W and the tropical wave.

The GFS model for 250 mb, and water vapor satellite imagery,
show that an inverted trough extends from Panama, northeastward,
to the Mona Passage.

Fresh to strong trade winds in the south central Caribbean Sea
will expand in coverage this weekend, as high pressure builds in
the western Atlantic Ocean. The winds will pulse to near
gale-force near the coast of Colombia each night through
Wednesday night. The seas are forecast to build to 11 or 12 feet
with the strongest winds.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough passes through the coastal areas of South
Carolina, to central Florida, into the east central Gulf of
Mexico. Precipitation: isolated to widely scattered moderate and
locally strong covers the Atlantic Ocean from 20N northward from
Bermuda westward. This precipitation is on the eastern side of
the upper level trough.

An upper level trough, that is in the north central Atlantic
Ocean, is spreading cyclonic wind flow from 20N northward
between 40W and 60W. A surface trough is along 31N47W 26N52W
20N51W. Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate
and isolated strong covers the area from 25N to 30N between 47W
and 52W. Other rainshowers are possible within 520 nm to the
east of the trough, and within 420 nm to the west of the trough.

A ridge will prevail across the region through early next week.
Fresh to occasionally strong easterly winds will pulse to the
north of Hispaniola at night.

$$
mt
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