[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 201753
TWDAT

000
AXNT20 KNHC 201700
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
105 PM EDT Sat Jun 20 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 20W south of 17N, moving
westward at 15 kt. Widely scattered moderate convection is
is noted within 180 nm of the wave axis from 04N to 13N.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 42W south of 15N, moving
westward at 15 knots. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is noted within 300 nm of the wave axis from 03N to
08N.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 62W south of 20N, moving
westward 15 knots. Scattered moderate convection is noted within
240 nm east of the wave axis from 11N to 14N.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 74W south of 19N, moving
westward at 10 to 15 knots. There is limited convection
associated to this wave mostly inland over N Colombia.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 84W south of 20N, moving
westward at 10 to 15 knots. Scattered moderate to strong
convection is over the SW Caribbean from 08N-12N between 79W-85W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 12N16W to 10N23W. The ITCZ
continues from 12N23W to 06N40W. It resumes W of a tropical wave
from 05N44W to 03N51W. Aside from convection mentioned in the
tropical waves section above, scattered moderate convection is
in land over Guinea from 10N-13N between 13W-16W. Isolated
moderate convection is from 03N-08N between 28W-33W. Scattered
moderate convection is from 06N-09N between 52W-57W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1020 mb high is centered over the north central Gulf of Mexico
near 29N88W. A surface trough extends from near Cape Coral,
Florida to the Yucatan Peninsula near 22N97W. Isolated moderate
convection is over S Florida, the Straits of Florida, and SE Gulf
of Mexico. Gentle to moderate winds prevail over much of the Gulf
waters, except over the NE Gulf where light to gentle winds are
noted.

Surface ridging will dominate the Gulf waters during the entire
period. Gentle to moderate easterly winds and slight seas are
expected through Sun. Moderate to fresh southerly winds are
forecast over the western Gulf Sun night through Wed night as
the pressure gradient tightens between the ridge and deepening
low
pressure over Mexico. Locally strong winds are then expected over
the SW basin.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Three tropical waves are traversing the Caribbean waters. Please
see the tropical waves section above.

The pressure gradient between a ridge north of the area and
climatological low pressure over Colombia is supporting strong to
near gale force winds over the south central Caribbean. Light to
gentle winds prevail over the western Caribbean. Moderate to
fresh
winds prevail elsewhere over the Caribbean waters.

Fresh to strong trades over the south-central Caribbean will
expand to the north-central and southwest basin tonight through
the middle of the week as high pressure builds over the western
Atlantic. Winds will pulse to near gale force near the coast of
Colombia each night through Wed night. Seas are forecast to build
to 13 ft with the strongest winds.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Two tropical waves are over the Atlantic. See above.
A surface trough is over the W Atlantic from 31N50W to 22N57W.
Scattered moderate convection is from 22N-31N between 47W-53W.
A 1032 mb high is over the E Atlantic near 34N28W.

An upper level trough passes through the coastal areas of South
Carolina to central Florida to the southeast Gulf of Mexico.
Upper level divergence ahead of this trough is supporting
scattered moderate convection extending over the northern Bahamas
northward toward the waters between 31N68W and 31N72W.

In the tropics, a large plume of Saharan dust continues to spread
across the tropical waters. Dry and hazy conditions associated
with
this dust plume cover much of the waters between 10N and 20N and
east of 55W to Africa. Moderate to fresh trade winds prevail
south
of 20N. Gentle to moderate winds prevail north of 20N.

High pressure anchored near the Azores Islands will extend a
ridge axis across to the W Atlantic, through the middle of the
week. Fresh to occasionally strong easterly winds will pulse
north of Hispaniola at night through Wed.

$$
Formosa
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