[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 181030
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 AM EDT Thu Jun 18 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Gale force winds possible in Agadir...

Meteo France outlook period indicates near gale to gale force
north to northeast winds are possible for forecast area Agadir
off the coast of Morocco.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 21W from 12N southward,
moving westward at 15 knots. Precipitation: the tropical wave is
moving through the area of the ITCZ. The wave is surrounded by
ITCZ precipitation.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 44W from 15N southward,
moving westward at 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: the tropical
wave is moving through the area of the ITCZ. The wave is
surrounded by ITCZ precipitation.

An Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 65W from 19N southward,
moving westward at 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: scattered
moderate to isolated strong is from 09N southward, in Venezuela.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the northern coastal sections
of Guinea near 10N14W, to 05N25W. The ITCZ continues from 05N25W
to 05N34W to 08N42W to 06N54W, near the coast of Suriname.
Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong from 03N to 09N
between the coast of Africa and 22W. Isolated to scattered
moderate and locally strong is in clusters, elsewhere, from 10N
southward between 45W and 61W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Broad troughing extends from the Yucatan Peninsula to the SE
Gulf of Mexico, across south Florida, Cuba, and the Bahamas.
Precipitation: isolated to widely scattered moderate from 27N
southward from 87W eastward including in the Yucatan Peninsula.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the rest of the Gulf
of Mexico. A surface ridge extends from the Florida Panhandle,
to the central Gulf of Mexico, and into the SW corner of the
Gulf of Mexico.

A ridge will dominate the Gulf waters during the next several
days. Gentle to moderate easterly winds and slight seas are
expected through Monday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level inverted trough extends from the western part of
Costa Rica to the eastern half of Honduras. Precipitation:
scattered to numerous strong is within 90 nm of the coast of
Central America from 10N to the coast of NE Nicaragua. Isolated
to widely scattered moderate and locally strong is elsewhere
from 16N northward from Jamaica westward.

Broad troughing extends from the Yucatan Peninsula to the SE
Gulf of Mexico, across south Florida, Cuba, and the Bahamas.
Precipitation: isolated to widely scattered moderate from 27N
southward from 87W eastward including in the Yucatan Peninsula.

The tropical wave along 65W will move into the central Caribbean
tonight. A tropical wave near 44W will reach the Lesser Antilles
by Fri night. Fresh to strong trades will continue over the
south-central Caribbean through Friday, then expand in coverage
this weekend as high pressure builds over the western Atlantic.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weak surface trough has dissipated northeast of the central
Bahamas. Further east, a large area of Saharan dust is spreading
across the tropical Atlantic waters from 06N to 27N east of 45W.
An upper level trough is spreading cyclonic wind flow from 26N
northward between 60W and 70W. Precipitation: isolated to widely
scattered moderate from 25N northward between 58W and 70W, and
from Haiti and Cuba northward between 70W and the SE Gulf of
Mexico, including across Cuba.

Broad troughing extends from the Yucatan Peninsula to the SE
Gulf of Mexico, across south Florida, Cuba, and the Bahamas.
Precipitation: isolated to widely scattered moderate from 27N
southward from 87W eastward including in the Yucatan Peninsula.

Upper level cyclonic wind flow, with a trough, covers the
Atlantic Ocean from 26N northward from 30W eastward. Rain
showers are possible in the area of cyclonic wind flow.

Atlantic Ocean high pressure will build across the region by the
end of the week. Fresh to occasionally strong easterly winds
will pulse, to the north of Hispaniola, at night.

$$
mt/dbm
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