[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 181743
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
142 PM EDT Thu Jun 18 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Gale Force Winds Possible in Agadir...

Meteo France outlook period indicates near gale to gale force
north to northeast winds are possible for forecast area Agadir
off the coast of Morocco during the next 24 hours. For more
information: http://www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-
marine/bulletin/grandlarge/metarea2

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave axis is near 21W from 14N
southward, moving westward around 10 knots. The weak wave is not
well-defined in either the surface or 700 mb winds, nor in the
total precipitable water. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is noted with the wave from 04N-10N between 18W-24W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave axis is near 49W from 18N
southward, moving westward around 15 knots. The wave is observed
as some turning in the surface winds from a scatterometer pass as
well as a maximum in the total precipitable water just east of
the axis. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 00N-03W
between 48W-51W.

An Caribbean Sea tropical wave axis is near 72W from 21N
southward, moving westward around 15 knots. The wave is not
detectable at the surface, but can be analyzed from both 700 mb
winds as well as a maximum of total precipitable water east of
the axis. No significant deep convection is occurring currently in
association with this wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Senegal near 14N17W
to 07N25W. The ITCZ continues from 07N25W to 04N45W. Aside from
the convection associated with the two Atlantic tropical waves, no
additional deep convection is noted with the monsoon trough/ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough extends over the SE Gulf of Mexico from 23N87W to
the S Florida peninsula near 26N80W. This is interacting with an
upper-level trough over the central Gulf to produce scattered
showers and isolated moderate convection from 20N-25N between
80W-87W. Winds and seas are light across the Gulf today.

A ridge will dominate the Gulf waters during the next several
days. Gentle to moderate easterly winds and slight seas are
expected through Sun. Moderate to fresh southerly winds are
forecast over the western Gulf on Mon as the pressure gradient
tightens some between the ridge a lower pressures over Mexico.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

See above for discussion of a weak tropical wave near 72W.
Elsewhere across the Caribbean, the E trades are generally
moderate to fresh, with some E to NE strong winds observed by
scatterometer just north of Colombia this morning. Scattered
moderate convection is occurred south of 11N in the SW Caribbean
associated with the NE Pacific's monsoon trough. Scattered showers
are also occurring in the NW Caribbean west of 85W.

The tropical wave along 72W will move into the western Caribbean
tonight. A tropical wave near 49W will reach the Lesser Antilles
by Fri night. Fresh to strong trades will continue over the south-
central Caribbean through Fri, then expand in coverage this
weekend as high pressure builds over the western Atlantic. Strong
to near gale force winds are expected near the coast of Colombia
Sun night through Mon night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See above for discussion of two Atlantic tropical waves. Elsewhere
the tropical Atlantic is dominated by a 1032 mb Bermuda/Azores
High centered north of our area near 36N37W with a ridge extending
west-southwestward to 30N80W. Trades south of the ridge are
generally gentle to fresh. Two weak surface troughs are noted at
29N68W to 31N66W and 26N50W to 30N44W. Scattered showers are
present within 180 nm east of the troughs.

A large plume of dense Saharan dust remains visible from roughly
10N-20N east of 40W. Visibility is inhibited over the area, with
Sal in the Cabo Verde Islands reporting about 3 nm visibility.

The Bermuda/Azores ridge will continue to build across the region
the remainder of the week. Fresh to occasionally strong easterly
winds will pulse north of Hispaniola at night.

$$
Landsea
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