[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 180538
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT Thu Jun 18 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 19W/20W from 12N
southward, moving westward 15 knots. Precipitation: the tropical
wave is moving through the area of the ITCZ. The wave is
surrounded by ITCZ precipitation.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 42W/43W from 15N
southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: the
tropical wave is moving through the area of the ITCZ. The wave
is surrounded by ITCZ precipitation.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 63W/64W from 19N
southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation:
scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 330 nm to the
west of the tropical wave, from 09N southward, in Venezuela.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the northern coastal sections
of Guinea near 10N14W, to 08N20W and 05N25W. The ITCZ continues
along 05N25W 08N42W 07N48W 06N54W, near the coast of Suriname.
Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong from 04N to 09N
between the coast of Africa and 22W. Isolated to widely
scattered moderate and locally strong is in clusters, elsewhere,
from 12N southward between 40W and 60W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A broad inverted surface trough extends from the Yucatan
Peninsula, northeastward, to the SE Gulf of Mexico, south
Florida, Cuba, and the Bahamas. Precipitation: isolated to
widely scattered moderate and locally strong from 25N southward
from 90W eastward including in the Yucatan Peninsula, and in the
Gulf of Mexico.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the rest of the Gulf
of Mexico. A surface ridge extends from the Florida Panhandle,
to the central Gulf of Mexico, and into the SW corner of the
Gulf of Mexico.

A ridge will dominate the Gulf waters during the next several
days. Gentle to moderate easterly winds and slight seas are
expected through Monday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level inverted trough extends from the western part of
Costa Rica to the eastern half of Honduras. Precipitation:
scattered to numerous strong is within 90 nm of the coast of
Central America from 10N to the coast of NE Nicaragua. Isolated
to widely scattered moderate and locally strong is elsewhere
from 16N northward from Jamaica westward.

A broad inverted surface trough extends from the Yucatan
Peninsula, northeastward, to the SE Gulf of Mexico, south
Florida, Cuba, and the Bahamas. Precipitation: isolated to
widely scattered moderate and locally strong from 25N southward
from 90W eastward including in the Yucatan Peninsula, and in the
SE Gulf of Mexico.

A current 63W tropical wave will reach the central Caribbean Sea
by Thursday night. A current 43W tropical wave will reach the
Lesser Antilles by Friday night. Fresh to strong trade winds
will continue in the the south central Caribbean Sea through
Friday. The coverage of the fresh to strong trade winds will
expand in coverage during the upcoming weekend, as high pressure
builds in the western Atlantic Ocean.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A dissipating cold front passes through 32N72W to 30N72W to
27N73W. A surface trough continues from 27N73W to the coast of
Cuba along 79W from 21N to 22N. An upper level trough is
spreading cyclonic wind flow from 26N northward between 60W and
70W. Precipitation: Precipitation: isolated to widely scattered
moderate and locally strong from 25N northward between 58W and
70W, and from Haiti and Cuba northward between 70W and the SE
Gulf of Mexico, including across Cuba.

A broad inverted surface trough extends from the Yucatan
Peninsula, northeastward, to the SE Gulf of Mexico, south
Florida, Cuba, and the Bahamas. Precipitation: isolated to
widely scattered moderate and locally strong from 25N southward
from 90W eastward including in the Yucatan Peninsula, and in the
SE Gulf of Mexico.

Upper level cyclonic wind flow, with a trough, covers the
Atlantic Ocean from 26N northward from 30W eastward. Rainshowers
are possible in the area of cyclonic wind flow.

The current weakening cold front and trailing surface trough
will drift eastward through Thursday,and weaken. Atlantic Ocean
high pressure will build across the region by the end of the
week. Fresh to occasionally strong easterly winds will pulse, to
the north of Hispaniola, at night.

$$
mt
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