[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 132230
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
630 PM EDT Sat Jun 13 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2230 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 31W south of 17N, moving
westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen from
02N-09N between 30W-35W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 42W south of 18N, moving
westward around 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within
210 nm E of the wave axis from 03N-08N.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 55W south of 15N, moving
westward around 10-15 kt. Numerous moderate to isolated strong
convection is noted S of 10N between 50W-58W. This tropical wave
will bring an enhancement of showers over the southern Windward
Islands late Sunday and early Monday.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 71W south of 18N, moving
westward around 15 kt. No significant oceanic convection is
associated with this wave. The tropical wave will move across the
central Caribbean through Sun night and across the western
Caribbean early next week.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 85W south of 19N, moving west
around 10 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted
from 11N-17N between 78W-84W. The tropical wave will move across
Central America through Sun night.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 11.5N16W to 09.5N23W. The ITCZ
extends from 09.5N23W to 07N30W, then continues from 06N35W to
05N41W, then continues from 05N45W to 05N52W. Scattered moderate
to strong convection is noted from 03N-10N between 19W and the
west coast of Africa. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is noted from 05N-09N between 20W-30W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough is analyzed from 27N91W to the Bay of Campeche.
Scattered showers and isolated tstorms are within 30 nm of the
trough axis. Fresh to strong winds prevail over the SW Gulf S of
21N W of the trough. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere.

Fresh to strong northwest winds will continue over the SW Gulf
near the coast of Veracruz, Mexico through tonight. Weak high
pressure will build over the northern Gulf Mon through Thu night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Two tropical waves are over the Caribbean. See above. Moderate to
fresh trades prevail over the central and eastern Caribbean, with
light to gentle winds over the western Caribbean. Moderate to
fresh trades will prevail over the central Caribbean through early
next week, with locally strong winds pulsing in the Gulf of
Venezuela and near the coast of Colombia.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough extends from 32N57W to 26N60W to the Turks and
Caicos Islands. Numerous moderate isolated strong convection is
seen from 25N-32N E of the trough to 50W. Isolated showers and
tstorms are farther southwest along the surface trough. The trough
will weaken while drifting northwestward through Sun. A 1022 mb
high is near 34N71W, leading to ridging over the western Atlantic
north of 28N. This weak high pressure ridge will lift northward
through tonight. A weak cold front may move off the SE U.S. coast
early next week, then stall over the northern Florida offshore
waters through Wed as a trough lingers between South Florida and
the NW Bahamas. Farther east, a weak surface trough currently
extends from 30N35W to 25N37W with isolated showers. A 1020 mb
high is near 27N28W.

$$
AL/Hagan
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