[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 140504
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 31W south of 17N, moving
westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen from
02N-09N between 30W-35W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 42W south of 17N, moving
westward around 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
within
01N-10N between 41W-46W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 55W south of 14N, moving
westward around 10-15 kt. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
extend about 200 nm on either side of the tropical wave. This
tropical wave will bring an enhancement of showers over the
southern Windward Islands late Sunday and early Monday.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 72W south of 17N in the
Central Caribbean, moving westward around 15 kt. No significant
oceanic convection is associated with this wave. Abundant dry
air is observed in the central and eastern Caribbean limiting
convection near the wave. The tropical wave will move across
the western Caribbean today into early next week.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 86W south of 18N, moving W
around 10 kt. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted in
the vicinity of the wave. The tropical wave will move across
Central America through Sun night.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N15W to 09N22W. The ITCZ
extends from 09N22W to 06N30W, then continues from 06N35W to
05N41W, then continues from 05N45W to 05N52W. Scattered moderate
to strong convection is noted from 03N-09N between 14W and the
coast Guinea, Senegal, and Liberia. Scattered moderate convection
is noted from 03N-10N between 24W to the coast of Brazil near 53W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough is analyzed from 23N86W south along the Yucatan
Peninsula. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are within
100 nm of the trough axis. Scattered showers are lingering north
of the trough from 23N to 27N from the Yucatan Channel to 90W.
Fresh to strong winds are gradually subsiding across the NW Gulf
with moderate to fresh NW winds observed in the latest ASCAT pass.
The water vapor imagery shows dry airmass is present in the mid and
low levels. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere.

Fresh to strong northwest winds over the SW Gulf near the coast
of Veracruz, Mexico will diminish to fresh speeds by late tonight.
Weak high pressure will build over the northern Gulf Mon through
Thu night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Two tropical waves are over the Caribbean. See above. Moderate to
fresh trades prevail over the central and eastern Caribbean, with
light to gentle winds over the western Caribbean.

The pair of tropical waves will move across the basin through
the middle of the week, however no significant convection is
expected associated with it. A fourth tropical wave will enter
the eastern part of the Tropical N Atlantic waters on Thu.
Otherwise, moderate to fresh trade winds will remain over the
central Caribbean through early next week, with locally strong
winds pulsing in the Gulf of Venezuela and near the coast of
Colombia.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough extends from 32N56W to 25N60W to the Turks and
Caicos Islands. Scattered moderate convection is seen 180 nm east
of the trough. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are farther
southwest along the surface trough. The second trough is observed
from 26N65W to 21N70W in the southern Bahamas. Scattered showers
are seen in the vicinity of the trough. Upper trough in the
eastern plains extends southwest across the Gulf of Mexico. This
is enhancing scattered moderate to strong convection across the
Florida Straits and across the Bahamas. This trough is seen in the
Central Atlantic but there is no significant convection near the
trough. A 1021 mb high is near 27N25W, leading to ridging over
the eastern Atlantic.

A weak high pressure ridge over the northern waters will lift
northward tonight. A low pressure trough that extends from the
central Atlantic westward towards Hispaniola will weaken while
drifting northwestward through Sun. A weak cold front is expected
to move off the southeastern U.S. coast early next week, then stall
over the northern Florida offshore waters through Wed. Low pressure
may form along the front. The front will weaken into a trough
from Wed into Thu. While this takes place, a trough will linger
between South Florida and the NW Bahamas. Expect unsettled weather
conditions over the waters in the vicinity of the Bahamas and
westward to the Florida coast for the next few days.

$$
MTorres
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