[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 131732
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
132 PM EDT Sat Jun 13 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 29/30W south of 17N,
moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
seen from 04N-11N within 150 nm W and within 330 nm E of the
wave axis.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 40/41W south of 18N,
moving westward around 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
within 210 nm of the wave axis from 03N-10N.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 53W south of 15N,
moving westward around 10-15 kt. Numerous moderate to isolated
strong convection is noted from 06N-10N within 210 nm W and
within 300 nm E of the wave axis. An enhancement of showers is
likely over the southern Windward Islands late Sunday and early
Monday. The tropical wave will then move through the central
Caribbean Wed night through Thu night.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 69/70W south of 18N,
moving westward around 15 kt. No significant oceanic convection
is associated with this wave due to dry air in the vicinity. The
tropical wave will move across the central Caribbean through Sun
night and across the western Caribbean early next week.

A western Caribbean tropical wave has an axis along 84W south of
19N, over the eastern portion of Nicaragua, Costa Rica and into
the east Pacific, moving west around 10 kt. Scattered moderate to
strong convection is noted from 09N-18N between 77W-84W. The
tropical wave will move across Central America through Sun night.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea-Bissau near
12N16W to 09N23W. The ITCZ extends from 09N23W to 08N28W, then
continues from 06N32W to 05N39W, then continues from 05N43W to
05N51W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from
04N-12N between 19W and the west coast of Africa. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is along and within 150 nm
N of the ITCZ between 31W and the coast of South America.

GULF OF MEXICO...

The weakening stationary front previously over the Gulf has
dissipated. A surface trough is analyzed at 1500 UTC extending
from 26N92W to 17N94W. Scattered showers and isolated tstorms
are within 30 nm of the trough axis. Over the southeastern Gulf,
upper-level diffluence is enhancing scattered showers and
tstorms, mainly south of 27N and east of 89W. A few lighter
showers are seen in the NE Gulf close to Florida. A recent ASCAT
pass shows gentle winds over the eastern Gulf, south of 28N and
east of 91W.

Moderate to fresh winds will diminish today over the NW Gulf.
Fresh to strong northwest winds will continue over the SW Gulf
near the coast of Veracruz, Mexico through tonight. Weak high
pressure will build over the northern Gulf Mon through Wed.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Two tropical waves are over the Caribbean. See above. Elsewhere,
a weakening mid- to upper-level trough is over the Gulf of
Honduras. Isolated to scattered showers and tstorms are seen
over water within 60 nm of the coasts of Belize and the Yucatan,
with scattered tstorms also seen over the Yucatan Channel.
Isolated tstorms are north of 20N and over Cuba. A recent ASCAT
pass shows moderate to fresh trades over the southern and
eastern Caribbean, with gentle winds over the northern and
western basin. Moderate to fresh trades will prevail over the
central Caribbean through early next week, with locally strong
winds pulsing in the Gulf of Venezuela and near the coast of
Colombia.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Weak mid- to upper-level troughing is leading to scattered
moderate showers and tstorms over the Old Bahama Channel,
north-central Cuba and portions of the northwest Bahamas.
Another upper-level low is located east of Bermuda and extends
an upper-level trough southward to near 25N58W. A surface
trough extends from 32N57W to 28N58W to 24N62W to the Turks
and Caicos Islands. Numerous moderate isolated strong
convection is seen from 25N-32N between 54W-59W. Isolated
showers and tstorms are farther southwest along the surface
trough. The trough will weaken while drifting northwestward
through Sun. A 1019 mb high is near 34N71W, leading to ridging
over the western Atlantic north of 28N. This weak high
pressure ridge will lift northward through tonight. A weak cold
front may move off the SE U.S. coast early next week, then stall
over the northern Florida offshore waters through Wed as a
trough lingers between South Florida and the NW Bahamas. Farther
east, a weak surface trough currently extends from 30N35W to
25N37W with isolated showers. A 1021 mb high is near 28N30W.

$$
Hagen
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