[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 131003
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
603 AM EDT Sat Jun 13 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0930 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 27W south of 17N,
moving westward around 15 kt. No significant convection is
associated with this wave.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 39W south of 17N, moving
westward around 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are noted from 04N to
07N within 180 nm east of the wave axis.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 52W south of 14N, moving
westward around 10-15 kt. Numerous moderate scattered strong
convection is noted from 06N to 09N between 50W and 56W.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 68W south of 17N,
moving westward around 10-15 kt. No significant oceanic convection
is associated with this wave.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 83W south of 20N,
moving westward around 10 kt. Scattered moderate to strong
convection is noted from 11N to 16N between 77W and 83W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea-Bissau near
12N16W to 04N31W. The ITCZ extends from 04N31W to 05N38W, then
continues from 05N41W to 05N46W. A Caribbean monsoon trough
extends from the coast of Colombia near 09N76W to 09N83W.
Scattered strong convection is noted S of the monsoon trough W of
76W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring within 240 nm
N of the ITCZ between 31W and 38W, and from 07N to 10N between
41W and 50W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weakening stationary front is analyzed from the Florida
Panhandle to the SW Gulf. Overnight scatterometer data shows
moderate to locally fresh winds behind the front over the NW Gulf,
where seas are generally 3-5 ft per recent altimeter data. Isolated
showers are occurring near the front in the central Gulf. Elsewhere,
scattered moderate convection is noted over the eastern Gulf, east
of a trough that extends from 29N83W to 23N85W. Fresh to strong
northerly winds are ongoing in the SW Gulf near the coast of
Veracruz, Mexico, where seas are likely building to 5-7 ft. Seas
are 2 ft or less E of 87W.

The weakening stationary front will dissipate today, as moderate
to fresh winds diminish behind the front over the NW Gulf. Fresh
to strong NW winds will continue over the SW Gulf near the coast
of Veracruz, Mexico through tonight. Weak high pressure will build
over the northern Gulf Mon through Wed.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A mid- to upper-level disturbance in the NW Caribbean, along with
the recent passage of a tropical wave, is supporting isolated
thunderstorms south of central Cuba. Elsewhere, GOES-16 lightning
data show active convection over the SW Caribbean near the monsoon
trough and east of a tropical wave along 83W. Drier air prevails
over the eastern Caribbean, where no significant convection is
noted. Gentle to moderate trades persist S of 17N, with light to
gentle winds N of 17N under a weak pressure pattern. Seas are
generally less than 3 ft across the basin, except 3-5 ft over the
southern waters within the moderate trades.

A western Caribbean tropical wave will move across Central America
this weekend. A tropical wave over the eastern Caribbean will
cross the central Caribbean this weekend and the western Caribbean
early next week. A third tropical wave near 52W will move across
the Tropical N Atlantic waters this weekend, then pass over the
eastern Caribbean early next week. Otherwise, moderate to fresh
trades will prevail over the central Caribbean through early next
week, with locally strong winds pulsing in the Gulf of Venezuela
and near the coast of Colombia.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Weak high pressure extends across the northern offshore waters W
of 65W, where gentle to moderate winds are shown in overnight
scatterometer data. A broad upper-level low centered near 33N60W
is maintaining an elongated surface trough across the central
Atlantic from 32N57W to 27N57W, which then continues SW to near
Hispaniola. Isolated thunderstorms are occurring near the trough
and eastward to 53W. Broad, surface high pressure dominates the
eastern and central Atlantic waters N of 20N and E of 50W, with
moderate to fresh trades occurring south of the ridge.

Weak high pressure over the northern offshore waters will lift
northward through tonight. The central Atlantic low pressure
trough will weaken while drifting NW this weekend. A weak cold
front may move off the SE U.S. coast early next week, then stall
over the northern Florida offshore waters through Wed as a trough
lingers between South Florida and the NW Bahamas.

$$
B Reinhart
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