[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 130548
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
148 AM EDT Sat Jun 13 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0520 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 24W/27W from 17N southward, moving
westward 15 knots. Precipitation: the tropical wave is moving
through the area of the ITCZ. The wave is surrounded by ITCZ
precipitation.

A tropical wave is along 37W/38W from 17N southward, moving
westward 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: the tropical wave is
moving through the area of the ITCZ. The wave is surrounded by
ITCZ precipitation.

A tropical wave is along 50W/51W from 14N southward moving
westward 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: the tropical wave is
moving through the area of the ITCZ. The wave is surrounded by
ITCZ precipitation.

A tropical wave is along 66W/67W from 17N southward, moving
westward 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: isolated moderate is in
the coastal plains of Venezuela.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 81W/82W from 20N
southward, moving westward 10 knots. Precipitation: Widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 16N southward from
77W westward.

A tropical wave is along 95W/97W, partly in the SW corner of the
Gulf of Mexico, from 20N southward moving westward 10 knots.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 22N
southward from 90W westward. The southwestern end of a
dissipating stationary front is close to the tropical wave,
also, near 21N95W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal border sections of
Senegal and Guinea-Bissau, to 11N20W 08N26W 06N30W, and 04N31W.
The ITCZ continues along 04N31W 05N40W, and 05N46W.
Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong is inland in Africa
from 11N to 14N between 14W and 16W. Scattered moderate to
widely scattered strong is from the coast of South America to
10N between 45W and 59W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong is within 180 nm to the north of the monsoon trough and
the ITCZ between 30W and 40W. Isolated moderate to locally
strong is from 02N to the monsoon trough from 30W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends from a 1015 mb Florida Big Bend/SW
Georgia low pressure center, into the central Gulf of Mexico.
The front becomes dissipating stationary, from the central Gulf
of Mexico, to 21N95W in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico.
Precipitation: Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is
from 27N northward between 79W and 86W, including in the Atlantic
Ocean coastal waters, across Florida, and into the NE corner of
the Gulf of Mexico. A surface trough is to the east of the
stationary front, from 30N83W to 23N85W. Precipitation: isolated
moderate to locally strong is from 26N southward from 90W
eastward. Isolated moderate to locally strong also is from 22N
southward from 90W westward, near the 95W/97W tropical wave.

The current stationary front will dissipate on Saturday. The
moderate to fresh winds, that are behind the front in the NW
Gulf of Mexico, will diminish. Fresh to strong NW winds will
continue in the SW Gulf of Mexico near the coast of Veracruz,
Mexico, from tonight through Saturday night. Weak high pressure
will build in the northern Gulf of Mexico, from Monday through
Wednesday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the NW corner of the
Caribbean Sea, from NW Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras. Upper level
cyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea to the northwest of
the line that runs from the Windward Passage to the border of
eastern Honduras and NW Nicaragua. The rest of the Caribbean Sea
is covered by upper level anticyclonic wind flow.

The monsoon trough is along 09N/10N from 74W in Colombia beyond
southern Costa Rica. Precipitation: Widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong is from 16N southward from 77W westward.

The current 81W/82W western Caribbean Sea tropical wave will
move across Central America this weekend. The 66W/67W eastern
Caribbean Sea tropical wave will cross the central Caribbean Sea
during this weekend, and it will move through the western
Caribbean Sea early next week. The current 50W/51W tropical wave
will move across the Tropical N Atlantic waters during this
weekend. It will pass through the eastern Caribbean Sea early next
week. Moderate trade winds in the central Caribbean Sea will
strengthen on Sunday, and persist through the middle of the next
week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough passes through 32N56W, and it curves to 25N60W
23N65W, and to the north central coast of Haiti. Precipitation:
widely scattered moderate to isolated strong covers the waters
that are to the N of 22N between 49W and the surface trough. The
precipitation that was in Hispaniola during the last 8 hours or
so has been weakening and dissipating with time.

Upper level cyclonic wind flow, with a trough, covers the Atlantic
Ocean from 20N northward from 40W eastward. No significant deep
convective precipitation is apparent in satellite imagery.

The current surface ridge that is in the northern waters will
weaken, and move northward through Saturday. The current surface
trough, that extends from the central Atlantic Ocean westward
toward Hispaniola, will weaken while it drifts northwestward
this weekend. It is possible that a weak cold front may move off
the SE U.S.A. coast early next week. The front will stall in the
northern Florida offshore waters through Wednesday, as a trough
lingers near South Florida.

$$
mt
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