[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 121031
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1031 UTC Fri Jun 12 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 19W south of 15N,
moving westward around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 05N to 08N within 90 nm of the wave axis.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 35W south of 15N,
moving westward around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 03N to 10N within 60 nm of 02the wave axis.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 48W south of 14N,
moving westward around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 06N to 09N within 90 nm east of the wave axis.

A tropical wave extends across the Windward Islands along 61W
south of 17N, moving westward around 10 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 12N to 15N within 120 nm east of the
wave axis.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 81W south of 19N,
moving westward around 10 kt. No significant convection is
observed near the wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes off the coast of Guinea-Bissau near
12N16W to 05N28W. The ITCZ extends from 05N28W to 08N35W, then
continues from 08N36W to 06N45W. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is occurring from 04N to 08N between 22W ad 27W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted within 180 nm north of
the ITCZ W of 36W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends from the Florida Big Bend region
across the central Gulf to near Tampico, Mexico. Thunderstorms
are ongoing off Tampico along the front, and scattered showers
are noted on the other side of the front in the Big Bend area,
but little shower activity is noted elsewhere along the front. A
recent scatterometer satellite pass indicated a small area of
fresh to strong NW to N winds off Veracruz Mexico, but elsewhere
only gentle to moderate NE winds are noted across the Gulf. Seas
are 3 to 5 ft north of the front and off Veracruz, and 2 to 4 ft
south of the front.

The stationary front will weaken today and dissipate on Sat.
Moderate to fresh NE winds behind the front will diminish by Sat.
Fresh to strong NW winds will prevail over the SW Gulf near the
coast of Veracruz, Mexico tonight through Sat night. Weak high
pressure will build over the northern Gulf early next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Divergence aloft on the southeast side of a broad upper trough
centered over the northwest Caribbean is enhancing clusters of
showers and thunderstorms between eastern Panama and Jamaica,
east of San Andres Island. Thunderstorms are also noted off
Yucatan, and trade wind showers are impacting most of the
Windward Islands. Weak ridging north of the area is supporting
only gentle to moderate trade winds across the Caribbean, where
seas are 2 to 4 ft for the most part.

The western Caribbean tropical wave will move across Central
America this weekend. Another tropical wave near the Windward
Islands will cross the eastern Caribbean and pass south of Puerto
Rico today through Sat, then move across the central Caribbean
later this weekend. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms,
some with gusty winds, will spread across the Windward Islands
today. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh trades over the central
Caribbean will strengthen early next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A sharp mid- to upper-level trough persisting along 57W/58W is
supporting clusters of showers and thunderstorms along an
associated surface trough reaching from 31N52W to the Turks and
Caicos Islands. Elsewhere, a broad, weak high pressure ridge
extends across the northern waters west of 65W. This high
pressure will weaken and lift northward through Sat. A low
pressure trough that extends from the central Atlantic westward
towards the southeast Bahamas will weaken while drifting NW over
the next couple days. A weak cold front may move off the SE U.S.
coast early next week, then stall over the northern Florida
offshore waters.

Farther east, another high pressure ridge extends across the
central and eastern Atlantic, with moderate to fresh trades south
of 20N and west of 30W. Fresh to strong NE winds are found off
the western coast of Africa between the Canary Islands and Cabo
Verde.

$$
Christensen
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