[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 121713
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
113 PM EDT Fri Jun 12 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1630 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 21/22W south of 15N,
moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is noted from 05N-10N along and within 150 nm W of
the wave axis.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 35W south of 16N,
moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 03N-10.5N within 180 nm of the wave axis.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 48W south of 14N,
moving westward around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 04.5N-09N within 240 nm of the wave axis.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 63W south of 16N,
moving westward around 15 kt. Scattered moderate showers and
isolated tstorms, some with gusty winds east of the wave axis,
are noted from 11N-16N between 60W-66W, including over the
Windward Islands. The tropical wave will move across the
central Caribbean later this weekend.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 79W south of 19N,
moving westward around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection
is noted from 09N-16N between 73W-84W, enhanced by the east
Pacific monsoon trough. The tropical wave will move across
Central America this weekend.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes off the coast of Africa near 13N17W
to 07N24W. The ITCZ extends from 07N24W to 07N33W, then
continues from 08N37W to 07N46W. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is within 60 nm S and within 180 nm N of the
ITCZ between 25W-32W and between 39W-45W. Similar convection
is seen from 05N-08N between 52W-60W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends from the Florida Big Bend region
across the central Gulf to near Tampico, Mexico. Isolated
showers and tstorms are along and just SE of the front. A
surface trough is analyzed from 29N83W to 22N85W. Scattered
showers and tstorms are along the trough.

The stationary front will weaken today and dissipate on Sat.
Moderate to fresh northeast winds NW of the front will diminish
by Sat. Fresh to strong northwest winds will continue over the
SW Gulf near the coast of Veracruz, Mexico tonight through Sat
night. Weak high pressure will build over the northern Gulf
early next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Two tropical waves are over the Caribbean Sea. See above.

A weak upper-level low near 20N82W and abundant moisture over
the NW Caribbean are enhancing scattered showers and tstorms
over the NW Caribbean Sea, mainly NW of a line from the
Windward Passage to the NE coast of Honduras. Elsewhere,
moderate trades over the central Caribbean will strengthen
early next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper-level low near 33N59W extends a sharp upper-level
trough to 24N55W. A surface trough is from 32N54W to 26N56W
to 23N63W to 21.5N70W. Numerous moderate isolated strong
convection is from 23N-32N between 50W-56W. Scattered
showers and isolated tstorms are elsewhere along the surface
trough. The trough will weaken while it drifts northwestward
during the weekend. Elsewhere, a broad, weak high pressure
ridge extends across the northern waters north of 27N between
66W-80W. This ridge will weaken and lift northward through Sat.
A weak cold front may move off the SE U.S. coast early next
week, then stall over the northern Florida offshore waters.

Farther east, another high pressure ridge extends across the
central and eastern Atlantic, with moderate to fresh trades south
of 20N and west of 35W. Fresh to strong NE winds are found off
the west coast of Africa from 19N-26N, east of 27W.

$$
Hagen
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