[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 121000
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
600 AM EDT Fri Jun 12 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0930 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 18W south of 15N,
moving westward around 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 05N to 08N within 90 nm of the wave axis.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 34W south of 16N,
moving westward around 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 03N to 05N within 60 nm of the wave axis.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 47W south of 14N,
moving westward around 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 06N to 08N within 90 nm east of the wave axis.

A tropical wave extends across the Windward Islands along 61W
south of 17N, moving westward around 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 12N to 15N within 120 nm east of the wave
axis.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 81W south of 19N,
moving westward around 15 kt. Isolated convection is noted within
60 nm of the wave axis S of 12N.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes off the coast of Guinea-Bissau near
12N16W to 06N25W. The ITCZ extends from 06N25W to 06N33W, then
continues from 08N36W to 06N45W. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is occurring within 120 nm of the monsoon
trough/ITCZ between 23W and 27W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted within 180 nm north of the ITCZ W of 36W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A nearly stationary front extends from the Florida Big Bend region
across the central Gulf to near Tampico, Mexico. Isolated moderate
convection is noted within 120 nm SE of the front. Overnight
scatterometer data shows moderate NE winds behind the front over
the NW Gulf, with locally fresh winds near the north-central Gulf
Coast. Elsewhere, fresh NW to N winds are occurring over the far
SW Gulf near the coast of Veracruz, Mexico. Light to gentle winds
prevail over the eastern Gulf. Seas are generally 2-4 ft over the
western Gulf, and 2 ft or less E of 87W.

The stationary front will weaken today and dissipate on Sat.
Moderate to fresh NE winds behind the front will diminish by Sat.
Fresh to strong NW winds will prevail over the SW Gulf near the
coast of Veracruz, Mexico tonight through Sat night. Weak high
pressure will build over the northern Gulf early next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The monsoon trough is analyzed along 10N W of 75W, with scattered
showers and thunderstorms within 240 nm north of the trough
between 76W and 79W. Scattered moderate convection is also
occurring over the NW Caribbean offshore of the Yucatan Peninsula
and Belize. A weak surface pressure pattern prevails across the
Caribbean this morning, with light winds across much of the basin.
Moderate trades are noted in overnight scatterometer winds over
the Gulf of Venezuela and near the coast of Colombia. Recent
altimeter passes indicate seas are 4 ft or less across the region.

The western Caribbean tropical wave will move across Central
America this weekend. The tropical wave near the Windward Islands
will cross the eastern Caribbean and pass south of Puerto Rico
today through Sat, then move across the central Caribbean later
this weekend. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms, some
with gusty winds, will spread across the Windward Islands today.
Elsewhere, moderate to fresh trades over the central Caribbean
will strengthen early next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

GOES-16 water vapor imagery depicts a mid- to upper-level low
pressure system along 57W/58W. An associated surface trough
extends over the central Atlantic from 32N52W to 27N53W to 23N60W
towards the SE Bahamas. Abundant moisture and favorable upper
dynamics are supporting numerous moderate scattered strong
convection within 120 nm of the trough E of 60W. Elsewhere, a
broad, weak high pressure ridge extends across the northern
waters W of 65W. Farther east, another high pressure ridge extends
across the central and eastern Atlantic, with moderate to fresh
trades S of 20N and W of 30W. Fresh to strong NE winds are found
off the western coast of Africa between the Canary Islands and
Cabo Verde.

The ridge over the northern offshore waters will weaken and lift
northward through Sat. A low pressure trough that extends from the
central Atlantic westward towards the SE Bahamas will weaken
while drifting NW over the next couple days. A weak cold front may
move off the SE U.S. coast early next week, then stall over the
northern Florida offshore waters.

$$
B Reinhart
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