[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 120604
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
204 AM EDT Fri Jun 12 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0540 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 16W/17W from 16N southward, moving
westward 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: the tropical wave is
moving through the area of the ITCZ. The wave is surrounded by
ITCZ precipitation.

A tropical wave is along 32W/33W from 16N southward, moving
westward 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: the tropical wave is
moving through the area of the ITCZ. The wave is surrounded by
ITCZ precipitation.

A tropical wave is along 45W/46W from 14N southward moving
westward 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: the tropical wave is
moving through the area of the ITCZ. The wave is surrounded by
ITCZ precipitation.

A tropical wave is along 60W from 17N southward, moving westward
10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: isolated to widely scattered
moderate and isolated strong is from 10N to 15N between 58W and
64w.

A tropical wave is along 79W from 19N southward, moving westward
10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: high clouds that are in the
southern part of the Caribbean Sea are moving northeastward,
with the broad upper level cyclonic wind flow that covers the
Caribbean Sea. Widely scattered to scattered moderate and
isolated strong is within 200 nm to the east of the tropical
wave along the coast of Venezuela, and within 175 nm to the west
of the tropical wave off the coast of Colombia.

A tropical wave is along 94W/95W from 20N southward moving
westward 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong is within 120 nm on either side of
the tropical wave, inland, in the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of
southern Mexico, and within 180 nm to the northwest of the wave,
in the coastal plains of Mexico.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of
Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W, to 09N22W, and 06N25W. The ITCZ
continues along 06N25W 05N27W 06N32W, and along 08N34W 07N40W
06N44W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong is from 02N to 11N from 33W eastward, and from 03N to 11N
between 33W and 60W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front passes through the Florida Big Bend, into the
central Gulf of Mexico, to the coast of Mexico near 23N98W.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is within 100
nm to the south of the stationary front, from 88W westward.
Isolated moderate is also elsewhere from 24N northward from 87W
eastward. Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the Gulf
of Mexico. An upper level anticyclonic circulation center is
inland, in interior Mexico near 23N100W.

The current stationary front will weaken overnight into Friday.
The front will dissipate on Saturday. Moderate to fresh NE winds
behind the front will diminish during this weekend. Fresh to
strong NW winds will prevail in the SW Gulf of Mexico near the
coast of Veracruz, Mexico, on Friday night and Saturday. It is
possible that a weak cold front may cross the NE Gulf of Mexico
early next week. The front will be followed by high pressure,
that is forecast to build in the northern Gulf of Mexico on
Tuesday and Tuesday night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow spans the entire Caribbean
Sea. An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 18N81W,
in the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea. Precipitation: isolated
moderate, and weakening more and more with time, is within 120
nm to 360 nm from the upper level cyclonic center, in the NW
quadrant. Isolated moderate to locally strong is in the waters
that are between Haiti and SE Cuba and Jamaica.

A tropical wave is along 60W from 17N southward, moving westward
10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: isolated to widely scattered
moderate and isolated strong is from 10N to 15N between 58W and
64w.

The monsoon trough is along 10N/11N from 74W in Colombia beyond
NW Costa Rica. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is
from 08N to 10N between 72W in Venezuela and 75W in Colombia.
Most of the precipitation is in Colombia. Isolated moderate to
locally strong is in the coastal waters from the monsoon trough
to 14N between 70W and 78W.

The western Caribbean Sea 79W tropical wave will move across
Central America during this weekend. Another tropical wave,
along 60W, will move through the eastern Caribbean Sea and to
the south of Puerto Rico, from Friday through Saturday. The wave
will move across the central Caribbean Sea later this weekend.
Scattered rainshowers and isolated thunderstorms, some with gusty
winds, will spread across the Windward Islands overnight into
Friday. Moderate trades in the eastern Caribbean Sea will increase
to fresh speeds by Saturday night, and persist through early next
week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough is along 31N52W to 27N54W, to 23N60W to 21N68W,
and 22N70W. The surface trough is the remnant boundary after the
most recent stationary front weakened and dissipated.
Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate and
isolated strong is within 120 nm on either side of the surface
trough between 50W and 60W. Isolated moderate is within 90 nm on
either side of the rest of the trough.

Upper level cyclonic wind flow, with a trough, covers the Atlantic
Ocean from 22N northward from 40W eastward. No significant deep
convective precipitation is apparent in satellite imagery.

A surface  ridge in the northern waters will weaken, and move
northward through Friday. A surface trough, that extends from the
central Atlantic Ocean towards the SE Bahamas, will weaken while
drifting NW during the next few days. A stalled front will linger
near the SE U.S.A. coast, and across northern Florida through this
weekend. It is possible that a cold front may move off the SE
U.S.A. coast early next week, and then stall in the northern
Florida offshore waters.

$$
mt
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