[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 112225
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
625 PM EDT Thu Jun 11 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2215 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 15W/16W from Senegal and The Gambia
southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. Nearby convection has diminished,
with an area of scattered moderate and isolated strong convection
out ahead of the wave from 04N-10N between 19W-23W.

A tropical wave is along 31W S of 16N, moving W at 15 kt. An
impressive plume of Saharan dust is preventing any convection
north of 12N east of 33W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is noted from 03N-05N between 30W-34W.

A tropical wave is along 44W S of 14N, moving W at 15 kt.
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from
06N-09N between 42W-48W.

A tropical wave is along 58W/59W S of 17N moving W at 15-20 kt.
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from
11N-13N between 57W-61W. An earlier ASCAT pass shows a well-
defined surface trough, with fresh winds on both sides of the wave
axis from 10N-14N. Some areas of heavy rain and gusty winds are
possible across portions of the Windward Islands tonight through
early Friday.

A tropical wave is along 78W from Jamaica southward moving W at
15-20 kt. This wave is interacting with the east Pacific monsoon
trough to produce scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection from 11N-14N between 74W-78W, as well as across
Jamaica.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Senegal
and Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W to 08N23W. The ITCZ extends from
08N23W to 07N30W, then resumes from 07N33W to 06N42W, then
resumes from 06N46W to the coast of French Guiana near 05N53W. The
east Pacific monsoon trough extends into the area from northern
Colombia near 10N75W to 1011 mb low pressure near 10N81W to Costa
Rica near 10N84W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is noted within 150 nm of the low pressure area.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front passes through the Florida Big Bend to the central
Gulf near 26N90W to the coast of Mexico near 23N98W. Strong
thunderstorms are located across the nearshore Mexican waters from
22N-25N west of 96W. Scattered thunderstorms are also noted along
and offshore of the west coast of Florida as well as across the
Florida Keys and the Straits of Florida, and other inland
locations southeast of the front aided by daytime heating.
Moderate to fresh north-northeast winds are behind the front per
afternoon scatterometer data, with light to gentle winds ahead of
the front.

The cold front will stall this evening from near its current
position at the Florida Big Bend region to the Bay of Campeche.
It will then gradually weaken into a trough on Sat and dissipate
late Sun. Fresh northeast winds behind the front will become
gentle northeast to east winds late Sat as relatively weak high
pressure builds across the area into early next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper-level low is centered between Jamaica and eastern Cuba.
Broad mid-to upper-level troughing extends over the western
Caribbean, Bahamas and South Florida. These features, along with
an old frontal boundary east of the southeast Bahamas and a
tropical wave in the area are all acting to increase moisture in
the NW Caribbean Sea. As a result, scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are seen from the Yucatan Channel to the north
coast of Honduras, west of 80W, and over other Caribbean inland
locations. An earlier ASCAT pass shows mainly gentle to moderate
trades across the basin, expect fresh near the tropical waves.

Low pressure will prevail into the weekend just north of Panama.
A tropical wave extending from Jamaica southward to western
Colombia will gradually approach Central America by this weekend.
Another tropical wave will move into the eastern Caribbean
tonight, then pass to the south of Puerto Rico Fri through Sat,
move across the central Caribbean during the weekend and reach the
eastern section of the western Caribbean early next week.
Moderate trade winds over the eastern Caribbean will increase to
fresh speeds during the weekend and continue into early next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An old frontal boundary extends through 32N52W to 23N60W to near
the Turks and Caicos. Scattered moderate convection is near the
front. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are seen north of the
remnant front west of 60W. The remainder of the Atlantic is fairly
tranquil, with mostly moderate to locally fresh wind speeds.

Weakening low pressure of 1017 mb near 31N56W will continue to
weaken and dissipate through late Sat as it generally tracks
westward. The remnant front, as a trough, will slowly move
westward through the upcoming weekend. Central Atlantic high
pressure will build westward over the eastern forecast waters Sun
through Tue night. A cold front may enter the far northwest waters
early next week and stall.

$$
Lewitsky
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