[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 111742
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
142 PM EDT Thu Jun 11 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 30W from 15N southward, moving W at 15
kt. An impressive plume of Saharan dust is preventing any
convection north of 12N east of 31W. Scattered moderate
convection is from 02N-09N between 25W-32W.

A tropical wave is along 42W from 13N southward, moving W at 15
kt. Scattered moderate convection exists within about 180 nm
either side of the wave axis from 02N-09N.

A tropical wave is along 57W S of 15N moving W at 15 kt.
Scattered moderate convection is from 10N-15N between 54W-60W. A
recent ASCAT pass shows a well-defined surface trough, with
fresh winds on both sides of the wave axis from 10N-14N. Some
areas of heavy rain and gusty winds are possible across portions
of the Windward Islands later today through early Friday.

A tropical wave is along 75/76W from 18N southward moving W at 15
kt. This wave is interacting with the east Pacific monsoon trough
to produce scattered to numerous moderate isolated strong
convection south of 12.5N between 76W-84W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of
Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W to 09N19W and 08N24W. The ITCZ
continues from 08N24W to 05N53W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is from 02N-10N between 12W-25W.
Scattered moderate convection is within 90 nm of the ITCZ
between 46W-53W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front passes through Tallahassee Florida to 26N90W to
24N98W. Strong thunderstorms are located across nearshore
Mexican waters west of 96W from 20N-25N. Dry air prevails over
the northwest Gulf behind the front along with fresh NE winds.
The northern end of a tropical wave, now analyzed as a surface
trough over the south-central Bay of Campeche, is producing
isolated showers and tstorms there. Over the southeast Gulf,
scattered showers and tstorms are seen between the Florida
Keys and Cancun Mexico.

The cold front will stall by early this evening from the Florida
Big Bend region to the Bay of Campeche. It will then gradually
weaken into a trough on Sat and dissipate late Sun. Fresh
northeast winds behind the front will become gentle northeast to
east winds late Sat as relatively weak high pressure builds
across the area.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is along 75/76W. See above.

An upper-level low is centered between Jamaica and eastern Cuba.
Broad mid- to upper-level troughing extends over the western
Caribbean, Bahamas and South Florida. These features, along with
a stationary front east of the southeast Bahamas and a tropical
wave in the area are all acting to increase moisture in the NW
Caribbean Sea. As a result, scattered showers and tstorms are
seen from the Yucatan Channel to the north coast of Honduras,
west of 80W, and over Cuba west of 79W. Over the E Caribbean,
shower activity is isolated. A recent ASCAT pass shows mainly
gentle to moderate trades across the basin, expect fresh near
the tropical waves that are along 57W and 76W.

Low pressure will prevail into the weekend just north of Panama.
The tropical wave along 76W will pass south of Jamaica this
afternoon and tonight, then gradually approach Central America
by this weekend. Another tropical wave will move into the
eastern Caribbean tonight, then pass to the south of Puerto
Rico and move across the central Caribbean during the weekend.
Moderate trades over the eastern Caribbean will increase to
fresh speeds during the weekend and continue into early next
week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front passes through 32N49W to 24N58W to 22N66W to
25N73W. Scattered moderate convection is near the front. Fresh NE
to E winds are seen north of the front, north of 22N between
63W-74W. The remainder of the Atlantic east of 45W from 17N-32N
is quiet, with mostly moderate wind speeds.

Low pressure east-northeast of Bermuda near 34N54W of 1012 mb
is weakening and becoming less organized early this morning.
The stationary front described above that extends from this low
will generally dissipate by tonight, and the remnant front will
weaken into a trough while it slowly moves westward into the
weekend. High pressure will build in behind the front and be
the dominant weather feature through weekend.

$$
Hagen
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