[Tropical] Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT33 KNHC 050235
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Cristobal Advisory Number  14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032020
1000 PM CDT Thu Jun 04 2020

...LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING CONTINUES ACROSS PORTIONS OF MEXICO
AND CENTRAL AMERICA...
...CRISTOBAL EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK OVER WATER BY FRIDAY NIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.8N 90.4W
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM S OF CAMPECHE MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests along the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico should
monitor the progress of Cristobal.  A tropical storm watch and a
storm surge watch will likely be required for a portion of the area
on Friday.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Cristobal was located inland near latitude 17.8 North, longitude
90.4 West. The depression is moving toward the east near 3 mph (6
km/h).  A turn toward the northeast is expected overnight, and a
subsequent northward motion should occur through Sunday.  On the
forecast track, the center will move over extreme northwestern
Guatemala and eastern Mexico on Friday.  The center is forecast to
move back over the southern Gulf of Mexico by Friday night, over the
central Gulf of Mexico on Saturday, and approach the northern Gulf
of Mexico coast Sunday and Sunday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is expected over the next day or so, but
slow strengthening is forecast to occur this weekend  when
Cristobal moves back over water.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Cristobal can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and
on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

RAINFALL: Cristobal is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations through Saturday:

Mexican states of Campeche, Quintana Roo, and Yucatan...Additional 5
to 10 inches, isolated storm totals of 25 inches.

Belize and the Mexican states of Tabasco, Veracruz and
Oaxaca...Additional 2 to 4 inches.

Southern Guatemala and parts of Chiapas...Additional 10 to 15
inches, isolated storm total amounts of 35 inches dating back to
Saturday, May 30th.

El Salvador...Additional 5 to 10 inches, isolated storm total
amounts of 35 inches dating back to Saturday, May 30th.

Southern parts of Honduras...Additional 3 to 6 inches, isolated 10
inches.

Rainfall in all of these areas may produce life-threatening flash
floods and mudslides.

Heavy rainfall will spread into portions of the Gulf Coast, from
east Texas to Florida, this weekend into early next week, with areas
of flash flooding possible.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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