[Tropical] Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

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WTNT33 KNHC 050835
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Cristobal Advisory Number  15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032020
400 AM CDT Fri Jun 05 2020

...CRISTOBAL CONTINUES TO BRING HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING TO MEXICO
AND CENTRAL AMERICA...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.8N 90.1W
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM SSE OF CAMPECHE MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests along the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico should
monitor the progress of Cristobal.  A tropical storm watch and a
storm surge watch will likely be required for a portion of the area
later today.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Cristobal was located inland near latitude 18.8 North, longitude
90.1 West. The depression is moving toward the north-northeast near
7 mph (11 km/h). A turn toward the north with a slight increase in
forward speed is expected later today, and a general northward
motion is forecast to continue through Sunday. On the forecast
track, the center will move over the Yucatan peninsula through the
day today. The center is forecast to move back over the southern
Gulf of Mexico by tonight, over the central Gulf of Mexico on
Saturday, and approach the northern Gulf of Mexico coast Sunday and
Sunday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is expected while the depression is
located over land. Gradual strengthening is forecast to begin once
the system moves over the southern Gulf of Mexico.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Cristobal can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and
on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

WIND: Gusty conditions are possible today along the eastern coast
of the Yucatan peninsula.

RAINFALL: Cristobal is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations through Saturday:

Mexican states of Campeche, Quintana Roo, and Yucatan...Additional 4
to 8 inches, isolated storm totals of 25 inches.

Belize and the Mexican states of Tabasco, Veracruz and
Oaxaca...Additional 1 to 3 inches.

Southern Guatemala and coastal portions of Chiapas...Additional 8 to
12 inches, isolated storm total amounts of 35 inches dating back to
Saturday, May 30th.

El Salvador...Additional 4 to 8 inches, isolated storm total amounts
of 35 inches dating back to Saturday, May 30th.

Southern parts of Honduras...Additional 2 to 4 inches, isolated 8
inches.

Rainfall in all of these areas may produce life-threatening flash
floods and mudslides.

Heavy rainfall will spread into portions of the Gulf Coast, from
east Texas to Florida, this weekend into early next week, with areas
of flash flooding possible.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky
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