[Tropical] Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

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WTNT33 KNHC 042040
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Cristobal Advisory Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032020
400 PM CDT Thu Jun 04 2020

...CRISTOBAL CONTINUES TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS AND LIFE-THREATENING
FLOODING...
...EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO TOMORROW NIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.5N 90.8W
ABOUT 165 MI...270 KM S OF CAMPECHE MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 110 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests along the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico should
monitor the progress of Cristobal.  A tropical storm watch and a
storm surge watch may be required for a portion of the area tonight
or Friday.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Cristobal was located near latitude 17.5 North, longitude 90.8 West.
The depression is moving toward the east-southeast near 3 mph (6
km/h).  A turn toward the east and northeast is expected tonight,
and a subsequent generally northward motion should occur through
Sunday.  On the forecast track, the center will move over extreme
northwestern Guatemala and eastern Mexico tonight and Friday.  The
center is forecast to move back over the southern Gulf of Mexico
late Friday, over the central Gulf of Mexico on Saturday, and
approach the northern Gulf of Mexico coast Sunday and Sunday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some additional weakening is possible overnight.  Re-intensification
is expected to begin late Friday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Cristobal can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and
on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

RAINFALL: Cristobal is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations through Saturday:

Mexican states of Campeche, Quintana Roo, and Yucatan...Additional 5
to 10 inches, isolated storm totals of 25 inches.

Belize and the Mexican states of Tabasco, Veracruz and
Oaxaca...Additional 2 to 4 inches.

Southern Guatemala and parts of Chiapas...Additional 10 to 15
inches, isolated storm total amounts of 35 inches dating back to
Saturday, May 30th.

El Salvador...Additional 5 to 10 inches, isolated storm total
amounts of 35 inches dating back to Saturday, May 30th.

Southern parts of Honduras...Additional 3 to 6 inches, isolated 10
inches.

Rainfall in all of these areas may produce life-threatening flash
floods and mudslides.

Heavy rainfall will spread into portions of the Gulf Coast, from
east Texas to Florida, this weekend into early next week, with areas
of flash flooding possible.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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