[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 281745
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2020


Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1650 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The large 1007 mb low east of the Lesser Antilles is now
Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine. The low is centered near
13.8N53.7W at 28/1500 UTC, or about 510 nm east of the Leeward
Islands, moving west at 20 kt. Maximum sustained wind speed is
35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. A recent ASCAT pass shows a large
area of 25-35 kt winds extending out 360 nm north and northeast
of the low center. scattered moderate to strong convection is
seen from 10N-16.5N between 48W-62W, including over Trinidad and
the southern Windward Islands. The disturbance has a high chance
of becoming a tropical storm before it reaches the Leeward
Islands early Wednesday. Heavy rainfall could produce life-
threatening flash floods and mudslides over the Leeward Islands,
Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico tonight through early Thu. Expect
tropical storm force winds, hazardous seas and heavy squalls
over the NE Caribbean Wed and Wed night. Please read the latest
NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4.shtml for
more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave with axis through the Cabo
Verde Islands along 25W from 05N-21N is moving W at 15 kt.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N-12N where the
wave meets the monsoon trough.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave with axis along 67/68W from
05N-21N is moving W at 10-15 kt. Isolated moderate convection
is along the wave axis.

A tropical wave extends across the western Caribbean along
82/83W, south of 18N, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection prevails in the vicinity of the wave from 10N-15N
between 80W-85W, including over eastern Nicaragua and northern
Costa Rica.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of northern Senegal
near 16N17W to 09N28W to 09N35W to 12N44W. Numerous moderate
scattered strong convection is from 07N-11N between 31W-37W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper-level low is centered near the coast of southern Texas.
As a result, upper-level diffluence is enhancing numerous
moderate scattered strong convection over the west-central Gulf
from 23N-27.5N between 93W-97.5W. Scattered moderate convection
is elsewhere from 18N-28N between 92.5W-98W. The sea breeze
appears to be enhancing scattered moderate tstorms firing up
along the coast of the Florida Panhandle and Florida Big Bend.
Similar sea breeze convection is along the coast and a few miles
inland between Corpus Christi Texas and Lake Charles Louisiana.
Surface ridging prevails over the eastern and central Gulf.

Surface ridging will dominate the Gulf waters through Fri
supporting mainly gentle to moderate return flow. A surface
trough will develop over the Yucatan Peninsula each evening,
shift westward into the SW Gulf waters each night, and dissipate
over the SW Gulf each morning. Fresh to locally strong easterly
winds associated with this trough will affect the Yucatan
Peninsula and adjacent waters and the SW basin through this
period.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine is forecast to bring tropical
storm conditions to the northeastern Caribbean Wed and Wed night.
See the Special Features section above for details. Two tropical
waves are currently bringing showers and tstorms to portions of
the basin. See the Tropical Waves section for details. The latest
ASCAT pass shows fresh trades occurring over much of the basin.

Fresh to strong trade winds will prevail over Colombia adjacent
waters and in the Gulf of Honduras through Wed night. Strong
winds and building seas associated with Potential Tropical
Cyclone Nine will begin to affect the Leeward and Virgin Islands
tonight. These conditions will shift to Puerto Rico and the Mona
Passage early on Wed and continue through Thu evening. Tropical
storm force winds and hazardous seas are expected over much of
this region. Fresh to strong NE winds are expected Wed night
through Thu night across the Windward Passage and Cuba adjacent
waters.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine is forecast to bring tropical
storm conditions today to the Tropical N Atlantic waters east
of the Caribbean. The system is forecast to bring tropical storm
conditions to the waters near the Greater Antilles and Bahamas
Wed night through Fri. See the Special Features section above
for more details on this system.

Upper-level divergence is enhancing scattered showers and
isolated storms well east of northern Florida and north of the
NW Bahamas from 28N-32N between 73W-80W. A surface ridge
extending from the Azores to a 1025 mb high near 30N41W to
southern Florida is keeping benign weather across the remainder
of the basin, east of 70W and north of 24N.

Fresh winds are expected south of 25N and west of 65W through
tonight, increasing to strong north of Hispaniola. Strong winds
and building seas associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine
will begin to affect the Leeward and adjacent Atlantic waters
tonight. These conditions will shift westward across the Virgin
Islands, Puerto Rico and the Mona Passage early on Wed and
continue through Thu evening. Heavy showers and tstms are
expected to affect the Bahamas, Turk and Caicos, and the Greater
Antilles adjacent waters during that period.

$$

Hagen
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