[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 282311
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
711 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800| UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The large 1007 mb low east of the Lesser Antilles is now
Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine. The low is centered near
14.1N54.9W, moving west at 20 kt. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. A recent ASCAT pass shows a large
area of 25-35 kt winds extending out 360 nm north and northeast
of the low center. Scattered moderate to strong convection is
seen from 11N-17N between 52W-63W, including over Trinidad and
the southern Windward Islands. The disturbance has a high chance
of becoming a tropical storm before it reaches the Leeward Islands
early Wednesday. Heavy rainfall could produce life- threatening
flash floods and mudslides over the Leeward Islands, Virgin
Islands and Puerto Rico tonight through early Thu. Expect tropical
storm force winds, hazardous seas and heavy squalls over the NE
Caribbean Wed and Wed night. Please read the latest NHC Public
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml and
Forecast/ Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4.shtml for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave with axis through the Cabo
Verde Islands along 26W, south of 21N is moving W at 15 kt.
Scattered showers are noted from 04N-15N where the wave meets
the monsoon trough.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave with axis along 68W from
05N-21N is moving W at 10-15 kt. Isolated moderate convection
about 200 nm east side of the wave axis.

A tropical wave extends across the western Caribbean along
83W, south of 17N, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection prevails in the vicinity of the wave from 10N-17N
between 80W-85W, including over eastern Nicaragua and northern
Costa Rica.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of northern Senegal
near 15N16W to 08N30W to 11N43W. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is from 10N-15N between 16W-20W, and from
05N-11N between 32W-39W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper-level low is centered near the coast of southern Texas.
As a result, upper-level diffluence is enhancing numerous
moderate scattered strong convection over the west-central Gulf
west of 90W. Surface trough is noted from 20N96W to 23N96W.
Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere from 19N-23N between
93W-96W. The sea breeze appears to be enhancing scattered
moderate tstorms firing up along the coast of the Florida
Panhandle and Florida Big Bend. Similar sea breeze convection
is along the coast and a few miles inland between Corpus Christi
Texas and Lake Charles Louisiana. Surface ridging prevails over
the eastern and central Gulf.

Surface ridging will dominate the Gulf waters through Fri
supporting mainly gentle to moderate return flow. A surface
trough will develop over the Yucatan Peninsula each evening,
shift westward into the SW Gulf waters each night and dissipate
over the SW Gulf each morning. Fresh to locally strong easterly
winds associated with this trough swill affect the Yucatan
Peninsula adjacent waters and the SW basin through this period.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine is forecast to bring tropical
storm conditions to the northeastern Caribbean Wed and Wed night.
See the Special Features section above for details. Two tropical
waves are currently bringing showers and tstorms to portions of
the basin. See the Tropical Waves section for details. The latest
ASCAT pass shows fresh trades occurring over much of the basin.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine will change little in intensity
as it moves near 24.7N 79.0W Sat afternoon. Fresh to strong NE
winds are expected Wed night through Thu night across the
Windward Passage and Cuba adjacent waters. Otherwise, fresh to
locally strong trade winds will prevail over Colombia adjacent
waters and in the Gulf of Honduras through Wed night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine is forecast to bring tropical
storm conditions today to the Tropical N Atlantic waters east
of the Caribbean. The system is forecast to bring tropical storm
conditions to the waters near the Greater Antilles and Bahamas
Wed night through Fri. See the Special Features section above
for more details on this system.

Upper-level divergence is enhancing scattered showers and
isolated storms well east of northern Florida and north of the
NW Bahamas from 28N-32N between 73W-80W. A surface ridge
extending from the Azores to a 1025 mb high near 29N46W to
southern Florida is keeping benign weather across the remainder
of the basin.

Fresh winds are expected south of 25N and west of 65W through
tonight, increasing to strong north of Hispaniola. Strong winds
and building seas associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine
will begin to affect the Leeward and adjacent Atlantic waters
tonight. These conditions will shift westward across the Virgin
Islands, Puerto Rico and the Mona Passage early on Wed and
continue through Thu evening. Heavy showers and thunderstorms are
expected to affect the Bahamas, Turk and Caicos, and the Greater
Antilles adjacent waters during that period.

$$
MTorres/Hagen
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