[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 281028
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
627 AM EDT Tue Jul 28 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Low pressure of 1008 mb near 14N50W is along the axis of a
tropical wave. The system is moving W at 15 to 20 kt and is
producing broad area of scattered moderate convection from 10N-
18N between 46W-60W. Environmental conditions are expected to
become somewhat more conducive for development, and a tropical
depression or tropical storm is likely to form during the next
couple of days while the system moves west-northwestward
approaching the Leeward Islands. Regardless of development,
locally heavy rains and gusty winds are likely across portions of
the Leeward Islands on Wednesday and will spread westward to the
Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico Wednesday night and Thursday.
Interests on these islands should continue to monitor the progress
of this system, and tropical storm watches or warnings could be
required for portions of the area on Tuesday. There is a high
chance of tropical cyclone formation within the next 48 hours.

Refer to the NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at hurricanes.gov for
more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is approaching the Cabo Verde
Islands, with axis along 23W, from 05N to 20N, moving W at 10 kt.
Scattered moderate convection is noted along 11N where the wave
meets the monsoon trough.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave with axis along 67W from
Venezuela to 21N, is moving W at 10-15 kt. No significant
comvection is related to this wave at this time.

A tropical wave extends across the western Caribbean along 81W,
south of 18N, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection
prevails in the vicinity of the wave from 12N-16N between 80W-85W.
Fresh to strong east winds are associated with this wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal near
14N17W to 09N30W to 10N36W to the 1008 mb low near 14N50W to
08N55W. In addition to convection previously mentioned in the
Special Features and Tropical Waves sections, scattered moderate
convection is from 06N-12N between 25W-38W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Deep layer low pressure is centered over southern Louisiana,
helping to produce a broad area of scattered moderate convection
N of 25N and west of 90W. Scattered moderate convection is also
noted over the SW Gulf south of 22N and west of 92W. Gentle winds
prevail over the E Gulf. Fresh to locally strong winds are noted in
the SW Gulf, south of 25N and west of 90W.

A surface ridge will dominate the Gulf waters during the next
several days producing mainly gentle to moderate winds. A
surface trough will develop over the Yucatan Peninsula each
evening, shift westward into the SW Gulf waters each night, and
dissipate over the SW Gulf each morning. Fresh to locally strong
easterly winds will be associated with this trough.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the Special Features and Tropical Waves sections above
for details on the tropical waves moving across the basin and
the ones approaching the area.

Moderate to fresh trades cover most of the basin, with locally
strong winds occurring in the south-central Caribbean, Windward
Passage, and Gulf of Honduras. Scattered moderate convection is
noted over Costa Rica and Panama related to the proximity of the
monsoon trough.

Fresh to strong trade winds will prevail across the
south-central Caribbean through Thu. Fresh to strong SE winds
are also expected in the Gulf of Honduras through Tue night. The
broad area of low pressure currently centered over the tropical
Atlantic will approach the E Caribbean by the middle of the week
enhancing the weather across the area.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See the sections above for details on the broad low pressure over
the tropical Atlantic and the tropical waves moving across the
basin.

An E-W surface ridge axis extends across the basin from a 1024 mb
high near 31N41W to central Florida. Gentle wind speeds prevail
from 24N-32N between 55W-80W.

A surface ridge will dominate the western Atlantic, supporting
fresh to occasionally strong winds near Hispaniola and the
Windward Passage at night through the forecast period.
The broad area of low pressure over the tropical Atlantic is
forecast to bring an increase in winds and seas to the area as it
moves WNW.

$$

ERA
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