[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 272206
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
606 PM EDT Mon Jul 27 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2130 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Low pressure of 1008 mb near 13N47W is along the axis of a
tropical wave. The low is moving W at 15 to 20 kt and is producing
broad area of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection
from 06N to 15N between 40W and 55W. Strong NE and E winds are
located from 14N to 20N between 43W and 52W. Environmental
conditions will become somewhat more favorable for development of
this low in the net several days, and a tropical depression or
tropical storm is likely to form. This system is likely to begin
affecting portions of the Lesser Antilles, and brings as risk of
heavy rainfall regardless of development. The system is likely to
begin affecting portions of the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday.
Interests in those islands should continue to monitor the progress
of this system. There is a high chance of tropical cyclone
formation within the next 48 hours. Refer to the NHC Tropical
Weather Outlook at hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is approaching the Cabo Verde
Islands, along 21W, from 04N to 20N, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered
moderate to strong convection is from 09N-15N E of 25W.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis along 63W from
the Virgin Islands to Venezuela, moving W at 10 to 15 kt.
Scattered moderate showers and isolated thunderstorms are along
and within 150 nm behind the wave axis from 12N-20N, including
over most of the Leeward and Windward Islands.

A strong tropical wave has entered the western Caribbean along
78W, from from Jamaica to Colombia, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 13N to 16N between 75W and 82W.
Fresh to strong east winds follow this wave across the central
Caribbean.

A tropical wave previously near the Caribbean coast of Central
America has moved into the eastern Pacific.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the west coast of Mauritania near
21N17W to 12N27W to a 1008 mb low near 13N47W to 09N54W. In
addition to convection previously mentioned in the Special
Features and Tropical Waves sections, moderate convection has
developed from 06N to 14N between 25W and 30W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Deep layer low pressure is centered over southern Louisiana,
helping to produce a broad area of numerous moderate to scattered
strong convection N of 25N between 86N and 95W. Also, in the
west- central Gulf, scattered moderate to strong convection is
from 20N-25N, west of 95W due to persistent moisture from the
remnants of Tropical Depression Hanna, who's low level
circulation has dissipated this afternoon. Gentle winds are
observed over the eastern half of the Gulf of Mexico. Fresh to
locally strong winds are in the southwest Gulf, south of 25N and
west of 90W.

A high pressure ridge will dominate the Gulf waters during the
next several days producing mainly gentle to moderate winds. A
surface trough will develop over the Yucatan Peninsula each
evening, shift westward into the SW Gulf waters each night, and
dissipate over the SW Gulf each morning. Fresh to locally strong
easterly winds will be associated with this trough.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the Special Features and Tropical Waves sections above
for details on the tropical waves moving across the basin and the
ones approaching the area.

Moderate to fresh trades cover most of the basin, with locally
strong winds occurring in the Windward Passages and Gulf of
Honduras. Scattered moderate strong convection is noted over NE
Costa Rica, eastern Nicaragua and eastern Honduras.

Fresh to strong trade winds will prevail across the
south-central Caribbean through Thu. Fresh to strong SE winds
are also expected in the Gulf of Honduras into Wed. The broad
area of low pressure mentioned in the Special Features section
will likely become a tropical depression before affecting portions
of the Lesser Antilles on Wed and Wed night. This system is
forecast to increase winds and seas across the NE Caribbean Wed
into early Thu.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See the Special Features section above for details on the broad
low pressure over the tropical Atlantic.

An E-W surface ridge axis extends across the basin from a 1024 mb
high near 35N23W to a 1024 mb high near 32N38W to a 1021 mb high
near 29N69W to southern Florida. Gentle wind speeds prevail from
24N-32N between 55W-80W.

A surface ridge will dominate the forecast area, supporting
fresh to occasionally strong winds near Hispaniola and the
Windward Passage at night through the forecast period. The broad
area of low pressure mentioned in the Special Features section
will likely become a tropical depression within the next two
days. This system is forecast to bring an increase in winds and
seas east of 65W and south of 23N Tue night into Wed. Areas from
the Greater Antilles to the Bahamas should monitor the progress
of the broad low pressure system.

$$
KONARIK
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