[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 280448
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1248 AM EDT Tue Jul 28 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0445 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Low pressure of 1008 mb near 13N48W is along the axis of a
tropical wave. The low is moving W at 15 to 20 kt and is
producing broad area of scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection from 05N-17N between 43W-58W. Environmental
conditions are expected to become somewhat more conducive for
development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is
likely to form during the next couple of days while the system
moves west-northwestward at 15 to 20 kt and approaches the
Leeward Islands.  Regardless of development, locally heavy
rains and gusty winds are likely across portions of the Leeward
Islands on Wednesday and will spread westward to the Virgin
Islands and Puerto Rico Wednesday night and Thursday.  Interests
on these islands should continue to monitor the progress of this
system, and tropical storm watches or warnings could be required
for portions of the area on Tuesday. There is a high chance of
tropical cyclone formation within the next 48 hours. Refer to
the NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at hurricanes.gov for more
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is approaching the Cabo Verde
Islands, along 22W, from 04N to 20N, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered
moderate to strong convection is from 09N-11N between 22W-26W.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 65W from the
Virgin Islands to Venezuela, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is from 16N-19N between 63W-66W.

A strong tropical wave has entered the western Caribbean along
79W, south of 18N, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered showers are
within 180 nm of the wave axis. Fresh to strong east winds
are associated with this wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal near
15N17W to 10N24W to 10N36W to a 1008 mb low near 12N48W to
07N54W. In addition to convection previously mentioned in the
Special Features and Tropical Waves sections, scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is from 08N-12N between
26W-33W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Deep layer low pressure is centered over southern Louisiana,
helping to produce a broad area of scattered moderate convection
N of 25N between 86N-95W. Isolated moderate convection is over
the E Gulf and Florida E of 86W. Gentle winds are observed over
the E Gulf. Fresh to locally strong winds are in the SW Gulf,
south of 25N and west of 90W.

A ridge will dominate the Gulf waters during the next
several days producing mainly gentle to moderate winds. A
surface trough will develop over the Yucatan Peninsula each
evening, shift westward into the SW Gulf waters each night, and
dissipate over the SW Gulf each morning. Fresh to locally strong
easterly winds will be associated with this trough.


CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the Special Features and Tropical Waves sections above
for details on the tropical waves moving across the basin and
the
ones approaching the area.

Moderate to fresh trades cover most of the basin, with locally
strong winds occurring in the Windward Passages and Gulf of
Honduras. Scattered moderate strong convection is noted over NE
Costa Rica, eastern Nicaragua and eastern Honduras.

Fresh to strong trade winds will prevail across the
south-central Caribbean through Thu. Fresh to strong SE winds
are also expected in the Gulf of Honduras through Tue night. A
broad area of low pressure remains over the tropical Atlantic,
about 700 nm east of the Windward Islands. Conditions are
expected to become somewhat more favorable for development
during the next few days and a tropical depression or tropical
storm is likely to form during that time frame. It could begin
to affect portions of the Leeward Islands by Wednesday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See the Special Features section above for details on the broad
low pressure over the tropical Atlantic.

An E-W surface ridge axis extends across the basin from a 1025 mb
high near 30N39W to central Florida. Gentle wind speeds prevail
from 24N-32N between 55W-80W.

A surface ridge will dominate the western Atlantic, supporting
fresh to occasionally strong winds near Hispaniola and the
Windward Passage at night through the forecast period.
A broad area of low pressure remains over the tropical Atlantic,
about 700 nm east of the Windward Islands. Conditions are
expected to become somewhat more favorable for development
during the next few days and a tropical depression or tropical
storm is likely to form during that time frame. It could begin
to affect portions of the Leeward Islands by Wednesday.
This system is forecast to bring an increase in winds and seas.

$$
Formosa
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