[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 271733
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
130 PM EDT Mon Jul 27 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A broad 1009 mb low near 12N45W is along a tropical wave that
extends its axis along 45W. The system is moving W at 20 kt and
is producing scattered moderate isolated strong convection from
06N-14N between 40W-53W. Strong NE-E winds are from 14N-19N
between 41W-49W. There is a high chance of tropical cyclone
formation within the next 48 hours. The system is likely to
begin affecting portions of the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday.
Interests in those islands should continue to monitor the
progress of this system. Refer to the NHC Tropical Weather
Outlook at hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends its axis along 19W from 04N-20N, moving
west at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is
from 09N-12N between 16W-25W.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis along 62W
from 21N southward, moving W at 15 kt. A sharp surface trough is
observed on the recent ASCAT pass with this tropical wave.
Scattered moderate showers and isolated tstorms are along and
within 150 nm behind the wave axis from 12N-20N, including over
most of the Leeward and Windward Islands.

A central Caribbean tropical wave...the remnants of Gonzalo...is
along 76W from 07N-17N, moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is within 120 nm of the wave axis from
13N-16N. This convection is also being enhanced by a N-S oriented
upper-level trough axis over the Caribbean along 79W.

A tropical wave axis is along 89W from 20N southward, from the
central Yucatan Peninsula to El Salvador to the east Pacific,
moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen over the
east Pacific where the wave intersects the monsoon trough.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the west coast of Mauritania near
21N17W to 12N20W to a 1009 mb low near 12N45W to 09N54W. No
convection is noted other than what is mentioned above in the
Tropical Waves section.

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper-level low is centered over southwestern Louisiana.
Upper- level diffluence on the SE side of the upper-level low is
enhancing scattered to locally numerous moderate to strong
convection over the north-central Gulf of Mexico from 25N-31N
between 86W-93.5W. Isolated showers and tstorms are in the NE
Gulf, east of 86W and north of 27N. In the west-central Gulf,
scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 20N-25N,
west of 95W due to leftover moisture from the remnants of Hanna,
which is well inland over Mexico near 24N102.5W. Little to no
significant precipitation is observed south of 24N and east of
95W. Gentle winds are observed over the eastern half of the Gulf
of Mexico. Fresh to locally strong winds are in the southwest
Gulf, south of 25N and west of 90W.

Tropical Depression Hanna continues to weaken over Mexico. A
ridge will dominate the Gulf waters during the next several days
producing mainly gentle to moderate winds. A surface trough will
develop over the Yucatan Peninsula each evening, shift westward
into the SW Gulf waters each night, and dissipate over the SW
Gulf each morning. Fresh to locally strong easterly winds will be
associated with this trough.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the sections above for details on the tropical waves
moving across the basin and the ones approaching the area.

Fresh trades cover the basin west of 69W from 11.5N-18N, with
moderate winds elsewhere. Locally strong winds are in the
Windward Passage. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection
is noted over NE Costa Rica, eastern Nicaragua and eastern
Honduras. Isolated moderate convection is over the adjacent
waters of the SW Caribbean, enhanced by the east Pacific
monsoon trough.

Fresh to strong trade winds will prevail across the
south-central Caribbean through Thu. Fresh to strong SE winds
are also expected in the Gulf of Honduras through Tue night.
The broad area of low pressure mentioned in the Special
Features section will likely become a tropical depression
before affecting portions of the Lesser Antilles on Wed and
Wed night. This system is forecast to increase winds and seas
across the NE Caribbean Wed into early Thu.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See the Special Features section above for details on the broad
low pressure over the tropical Atlantic.

Weak upper-level troughing over the waters near the east coast
of northern Florida is enhancing scattered showers and tstorms
from 29N-32N between 73W-81W. An E-W surface ridge axis extends
across the basin from a 1024 mb high near 35N23W to a 1024 mb
high near 32N38W to a 1022 mb high near 29N69W to southern
Florida. Gentle wind speeds prevail from 24N-32N between
55W-80W.

A surface ridge will dominate the forecast area, supporting
fresh to occasionally strong winds near Hispaniola and the
Windward Passage at night through the forecast period. The broad
area of low pressure mentioned in the Special Features section
will likely become a tropical depression within the next two
days. This system is forecast to bring an increase in winds and
seas east of 65W and south of 23N Tue night into Wed. Areas from
the Greater Antilles to the Bahamas should monitor the progress
of the broad low pressure system.

$$
Hagen
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