[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 271024
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
623 AM EDT Mon Jul 27 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Depression Hanna is centered near 24.1N 102.9W at
27/0900 UTC or 60 nm N of Fresnillo Mexico moving W at 4 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is affecting the western Gulf waters mainly west of
95W. Hanna will continue to weaken and move inland into NE
Mexico, and become a remnant low Mon morning. Please read the
latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT3.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT3.shtml for more
details.

A tropical wave extends its axis along 44W. A surface low has
developed along the wave axis centered near 11.3N44W. The system
is moving W at 15 to 20 kt, and is producing scattered moderate
convection from 07N-14N between 39W-48W. Environmental conditions
are forecast to be conducive for development, and a tropical
depression or tropical storm is likely to form within the next two
to three days as the system approaches the Lesser Antilles. There
is a high chance of tropical cyclone formation within the next 48
hours. Interests in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the
progress of this system. Refer to the NHC Tropical Weather Outlook
at hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends its axis along 17W from 04N-19N, moving
west at about 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 08N-
12N and east of 23W. The wave is well depicted at 700 mb.

A tropical wave extends across the Lesser Antilles with axis
along 61W and S of 21N, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers
are within 120 nm of the wave axis.

A tropical wave is analyzed in the Caribbean along 73W from South
America to Hispaniola, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is within 120 nm of the wave axis mainly south of 13N.
This wave is accompanied by east winds of 20-30 kt.

A tropical wave with axis along 88W from 22N southward. The wave
is moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
within 120 nm of the wave axis mainly south of 14N.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from a 1008 mb low centered over the
coast of west Africa near 21N16W to 13N20W to 07N51W. The ITCZ
extends from that point to the coast of French Guiana near 05N54W.
Aside from convection mentioned in the Special Features section
above, scattered moderate convection is noted along the monsoon
trough between 48W-51W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Refer to the Special Features section for details on T.D. Hanna
currently over N Mexico.

Radar imagery shows scattered showers over the northern Gulf north
of 28N between 88W-93W. Latest scatterometer data depicts gentle
to moderate easterly winds across the eastern half of the basin,
while fresh to strong winds are noted west of 90W.

Tropical Depression Hanna continues moving WSW across
northeast Mexico while weakening. The pressure gradient between
Hanna and a surface ridge across the Gulf waters will support
fresh to locally strong SE winds over the western Gulf through
Mon. Fresh winds are expected to pulse within about 90 nm of the
coast of Yucatan Peninsula during the evening hours due to local
effects.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the sections above for details on the tropical waves
moving across the basin and the ones approaching the area.

Fresh trades cover most of the remainder of the basin, except
for gentle winds in the far SW Caribbean. Scattered showers are
noted across the SW Caribbean in association with the east
Pacific monsoon trough.

Fresh to strong winds will prevail across the south-central
Caribbean through Thu. Fresh to strong SE winds are also
expected in the Gulf of Honduras through Tue night. Winds and seas
will be enhanced across the eastern Caribbean by the middle of
the week as a low pressure develops over the Atlantic and
approaches the area.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See Special Features section above for details on the tropical
waves and the Special features low.

Surface ridging prevails across the basin, anchored by a 1021 mb
high is centered near 31N37W. This weather regimen will dominate
the forecast area, supporting fresh to occasionally strong winds
near Hispaniola and the Windward Passage at night through the
next few days. Winds and seas will be enhanced in the vicinity of
the Special Features' low pressure currently centered near 44W.

$$
ERA
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