[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 262256
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
656 PM EDT Sun Jul 26 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Depression Hanna is centered near 25.6N 100.6W at
26/2100 UTC or 30 nm WSW of Monterrey Mexico moving WSW at 8 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Hanna weakened from a
tropical storm into a tropical depression early this afternoon.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection extends eastward
from Hanna to impact areas of the Gulf of Mexico within about 60
nm of the coast of South Texas and NE Mexico. Winds and seas have
fallen below 20 kts and 8 ft, respectively, over area waters, and
any remaining impacts from Tropical Depression Hanna will end
tonight. Hanna will continue to weaken and move away from the
area, farther into NE Mexico, and become a remnant low Mon
morning. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT3.shtml and
Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT3.shtml
for more details.

Broad low pressure of 1010 mb and its associated tropical wave
center near 11N38W this afternoon. The system is moving W at 15 to
20 kt, and is producing scattered moderate to strong convection
from 06N to 14N between 32W and 46W. Environmental conditions are
forecast to be conducive for development, and a tropical
depression or tropical storm is likely to form within the next two
to three days as the system nears the Lesser Antilles. There is a
high chance of tropical cyclone formation within the next 48
hours. Interests in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the
progress of this system. Refer to the NHC Tropical Weather Outlook
at hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A central Atlantic tropical wave with an axis along 58W 05N to 22N
is approaching the Leeward Islands this evening. It is moving W at
15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within 90 nm of the wave
axis from 12N-17N.

A strong tropical wave is analyzed in the Caribbean along 72W from
South America to Hispaniola, moving W at 15 to 20 kt. Numerous
moderate to scattered strong convection is from 11N-16N between
69W-75W. This wave is accompanied by east winds of 20 to 30 kt.

A western Caribbean tropical wave with axis along 86W from 22N
southward is beginning to move into Central America and the
eastern Pacific. It is moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered
moderate convection with this wave is located in the Yucatan
Channel.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the west coast of Africa near
16N16W and extends to a 1010 mb low near 11N38W to 10N54W. Aside
from convection mentioned in the Special Features section above,
numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is seen off the
coast of Africa from 06N-12N between 13W-25W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Refer to the Special Features section for details on T.D. Hanna.

Deep layer lift is inducing numerous moderate to scattered strong
thunderstorms over the north-central Gulf of Mexico from 26N to
31N between 87W and 94W. A band of scattered moderate convection
extends southward from this activity along 87W, into the Yucatan
Channel. Where high pressure is more dominate in the eastern Gulf,
gentle to moderate SE winds are occurring, whereas front to strong
winds prevail over the western Gulf. These winds over the western
Gulf will continue through at least Mon night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
moving across the basin.

Fresh trades cover most of the remainder of the basin, except
for gentle winds in the far SW Caribbean. Scattered moderate
convection is over the SW Caribbean in association with the east
Pacific monsoon trough.

Fresh to strong winds will prevail across the south-central
Caribbean through Thu night. Fresh to strong SE winds are also
expected in the Gulf of Honduras into Wed. Low pressure,
currently near 11N38W, is likely to develop into a tropical
depression or tropical storm before approaching the Lesser
Antilles by the middle of the week. This system will likely
increase winds and seas across the NE Caribbean.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See Special Features section above for details on low pressure
move west through the central tropical Atlantic.

Deep-layer but rather weak low pressure is centered 100 nm or so
off the NE Florida coast. Scattered moderate convection extends N
of 27N and W of 75W. Elsewhere, a broad E-W oriented surface
ridge extends along 31N between 30W- 70W, leading to light to
gentle wind speeds from 24N- 32N between 50W-72W.

A surface ridge will dominate the forecast area, supporting
fresh to occasionally strong winds near Hispaniola and the
Windward Passage at night through the forecast period. Expect
increasing winds and seas E of the Lesser Antilles as the low
approaches the Caribbean.

$$
KONARIK
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