[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 261734
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
135 PM EDT Sun Jul 26 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Hanna is centered over northeast Mexico near 26.1N
99.7W as of 26/1500 UTC, or about 80 nm W of McAllen Texas. This
position is more than 120 nm inland from the Gulf of Mexico.
Hanna is moving to the WSW at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 995 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with
gusts to 50 kt. Numerous moderate isolated strong convection
extends out 150 nm in the NE quad, 210 nm SE quad and 150 nm SW
quad. Hanna has been producing extremely heavy rainfall over
portions of NE Mexico and far south Texas. Tamaulipas Mexico
recorded 167.6 mm...6.60 inches...of rain during the 24 hour
period ending at 1200 UTC this morning. Winds over the waters of
the west-central Gulf of Mexico have decreased to 25 kt or less.
Seas have diminished to 11 ft or less, and will continue to
diminish today. Hanna is forecast to weaken to a tropical
depression by this evening. Please read the latest NHC Public
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT3.shtml and
Forecast/Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT3.shtml
for more details.

A tropical wave is along 36W with a 1010 mb low along the wave
near  11N36W. This system is moving W at 15-20 kt and is producing a
wide area of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection from
07N-13N between 33W-44W. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is
likely to form within the next few days as the system nears the
Lesser Antilles. There is a high chance of tropical cyclone
formation within the next 48 hours. Interests in the Lesser
Antilles should monitor the progress of this system. Refer to the
NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A central Atlantic tropical wave with axis along 56W from 05N-22N
is moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within
90 nm of the wave axis from 12N-17N.

The remnants of T.D. Gonzalo are analyzed as a tropical wave in
the Caribbean along 69W from 08N-17N, moving W at 20 kt.
Scattered moderate to strong convection is from 11N-16N between
68W-75W. A recent ASCAT pass shows strong winds from 12N-16.5N
between 67W-73W, with locally near gale force in the strongest
convection.

A western Caribbean tropical wave with axis along 85W from 22N
southward is moving west at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection
is within 120 nm of the wave axis, including over the Yucatan
Channel.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the west coast of Africa near
16N17W and extends to a 1010 mb low near 11N36W to 10N50W. The
ITCZ extends from 10N50W to 09N54W. Aside from convection
mentioned in the sections above, scattered moderate to strong
convection is seen off the coast of Africa from 06N-12N between
13W-23W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Refer to the Special Features section for details on T.S. Hanna.

Strong upper-level diffluence over the north-central Gulf of
Mexico is enhancing numerous moderate isolated strong convection
from 27N-31N between 87W-93W. Isolated showers and tstorms are
elsewhere north of 25N. A western Caribbean tropical wave is
enhancing showers and tstorms in the Yucatan Channel. A recent
ASCAT pass shows gentle to moderate E-SE winds in the eastern
Gulf. Fresh to strong winds are over portions of the west-central
and southwest Gulf. The pressure gradient between Hanna and a
ridge across the remainder of the Gulf waters will support fresh
to strong SE winds over the western Gulf through Mon.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
moving across the basin.

Fresh trades cover most of the remainder of the basin, except
for gentle winds in the far SW Caribbean. Isolated moderate to
strong convection is over the SW Caribbean in association with
the east Pacific monsoon trough. An upper-level low over the
central Caribbean is enhancing convection associated with the
remnants of Gonzalo.

Fresh to strong winds will prevail across the south-central
Caribbean through Thu. Fresh to strong SE winds are also expected
in the Gulf of Honduras through Tue night. A strong tropical
wave, currently located along 36W, is likely to develop into a
tropical depression or tropical storm before approaching the
Lesser Antilles by the middle of the week. This system will
increase winds and seas across the NE Caribbean.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper-level low pressure with a weak surface reflection is
located just east of central and northern Florida. Scattered
moderate showers and isolated tstorms are seen between the
east coast of Florida and 74.5W, from 26N-32N. Elsewhere, a
broad E-W oriented surface ridge extends along 31N between
30W-70W, leading to light to gentle wind speeds from 24N-32N
between 50W-72W.

A surface ridge will dominate the forecast area, supporting
fresh to occasionally strong winds near Hispaniola and the
Windward Passage at night through the forecast period. Expect
increasing winds and seas E of 65W by the middle of the week
as a strong tropical wave approaches the Lesser Antilles.

$$

Hagen
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