[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 261033
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
633 AM EDT Sun Jul 26 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Hanna is centered near 26.3N 98.9W at 26/0900 UTC
or 30 nm WNW of Mcallen Texas moving WSW at 8 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 988 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Please read the latest NHC Public
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT3.shtml and
Forecast/ Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT3.shtml for more details.

A tropical wave along 33W is producing a large area of cloudiness
and disorganized showers and thunderstorms extending from 06N-14N
between 32W-40W. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form early
next week while the wave moves westward at around 15 mph across
the tropical Atlantic. There is a medium chance for tropical
cyclone formation within the next 48 hours.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A central Atlantic tropical wave with axis along 53W from 21N
southward, is moving W at 10-15 kt. No significant convection is
related to this wave at this time.

The remnants of T.D. Gonzalo are analyzed as a tropical wave
currently over the eastern Caribbean. The wave axis extends along
67W from 08N-17N. Scattered showers are noted from 11N-16N
between 66W-69W.

A western Caribbean tropical wave with axis along 84W from 22N
southward is moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are noted
in the vicinity of the wave between 79W-86W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Senegal
near 15N17W to 14N18W to 09N45W. The ITCZ extends from that point
to 10N51W, then resumes west of a tropical wave from 09N54W to
07N58W. Aside from convection mentioned in the Tropical Waves
section, scattered showers prevail along the monsoon trough mainly
east of 40W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Refer to the Special Features section above for details on
T.S. Hanna.

Outside of Hanna immediate impacts, scattered showers are noted
across the basin. Generally, moderate to fresh SE winds are
noted across the Gulf. Seas will average 4 to 6 ft.

Hanna will continue moving inland while weakening. The system will
dissipate by Tuesday. The pressure gradient between Hanna and a
surface ridge across the remainder of the Gulf waters will
support fresh to strong SE winds over the western Gulf through
Mon.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
moving across the basin.

Scattered moderate convection is noted inland over Panama and N
Colombia. Fresh trades are occurring across most of the basin,
with some strong winds pulsing over the south-central Caribbean.

Fresh to strong winds across the central Caribbean are expected
to continue pulsing through the forecast period. Fresh to strong
SE winds are also expected in the Gulf of Honduras tonight through
Mon night. A strong tropical wave will approach the Lesser
Antilles by the middle of the week increasing winds/seas across
the eastern Caribbean as it moves west.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the sections above for details on the tropical waves
moving across the basin.

An upper-level low pressure centered over the N Bahamas is
producing scattered moderate convection over the west Atlantic
west of 76W. Elsewhere, a broad surface ridge extends across the
area, anchored by a 1025 mb high centered near 32N39W.

A surface ridge will dominate the forecast area, supporting
pulsing fresh winds near Hispaniola and the Windward Passage at
night through tonight. Expect increasing winds and seas E of 65W
by mid week as a strong tropical wave approaches the Lesser
Antilles.

$$

ERA
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